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花样年控股(1777.HK):回归一二线城市 平稳增长可期

國元(香港) ·  Feb 20, 2013 00:00  · Researches

Investment points: The annual sales target was 111% in 2012, and steady growth is expected to be achieved by the end of December 2012. The total contract sales amount for the sample year was about RMB 8,014 billion, an increase of 14.4% over the previous year; the cumulative contract sales area was about 959,905 square meters, an increase of 28.66% over the previous year. The cumulative sales amount has reached 111% of the annual sales target of RMB 7.2 billion. The sales target for the full year of 2013 was set at 10 billion yuan, an increase of 25% from the current level. Returning to Tier 1 and 2 cities, focusing on urban complex projects, the intention is to return to Tier 1 and 2 cities, find cost-effective plots, and actively and carefully purchase new land reserves. In October of last year, the Year of Flowers acquired land in Beijing's East Fourth Ring Road. It is planned to use it for commercial and office purposes and develop a commercial complex. This is the first time that Huanyan has entered Beijing since entering Tianjin in 2006. Land purchases will expand Huanyan's land reserves in first-tier cities. At the end of last year, Fangyao acquired land in Shekou, Shenzhen with a floor price of around 4,000 and more than 60% equity. The company is also considering some projects in Shanghai and Guangzhou. The company pays more attention to the cost performance ratio of the land and will not consider bidding for the Land King project to reduce land costs as much as possible. We believe that the company will generally focus on high-profit urban complex projects, and at the same time carry out flexible development in second-tier cities, develop some products that are just needed according to local conditions, and achieve a balance between residential products and complex projects. The shift from “asset-heavy” to “asset-light” is worth looking forward to. In addition to real estate development, Floweryear also hopes to develop in the fields of commercial management, hotel management, entertainment, tourism, old-age care, etc., from “heavy assets” to “light assets.” Samannian hopes to achieve this transformation through financial instruments such as real estate funds, flexible methods for cooperative development projects, and characteristic property services represented by “Color Life.” In 2012, “Color Life” technology is expected to contribute about 200 million yuan in revenue, and financial instruments such as real estate funds are expected to contribute 280 to 300 million yuan. These projects will definitely contribute more revenue and bring more stable and abundant cash flow in the future. The target price is HK$1.98, maintaining the buying rating: As of mid-2012, RNAV per share was HK$2.88. Based on the current stock price calculation, the company's stock price discount rate is 56.3%, which is 40% to 45% higher than the industry average, and the valuation is still low. Taking into account the NAV valuation, the average valuation level of the real estate industry, and the company's compound growth rate over the next few years, we adjusted the company's target price to HK$1.98, which is equivalent to 7 times that of 2012 and 5.9 times PE in 2013, with room for an increase of 55.9% from the current price.

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