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湘鄂情(002306)2012年业绩快报点评:“三公”消费受控影响短期盈利

中信證券 ·  Mar 4, 2013 00:00  · Researches

Key investment matters: Company announcement 2012 performance report: Net profit attributable to owners of the parent company in 2012 was 120 million yuan, up 29.35% from the same period last year; operating income was 1,379 billion yuan, up 11.66% from the same period last year; basic earnings per share was 0.3 yuan, down 36.17% from the same period last year. Our comments on this are as follows: Commentary: Consumption of the “three public companies” was controlled, and profits declined sharply in Q4 2012. The company's net profit in 2012 was 120 million yuan and EPS of 0.30 yuan, which was lower than expected (net profit of 145 million yuan, EPS of 0.36 yuan). We expect that the main reason for this is due to the reduction in “three public consumption”. The 2012 Q4 store revenue was lower than expected, so the profit situation fell short of expectations. Judging from the company's quarterly data, the company's operating income increased by only 5.3% in 2012/Q4, while operating profit fell by 53.3% and net profit by 41.6%. The impact is expected to continue, and profit forecasts have been lowered. The net profit of 120 million yuan achieved by the company in 2012 includes a contribution of non-operating income of 30.9968 million yuan, mainly from merger income from the acquisition of Weishidu, default payments due to the other party's default on the cooperation agreement with China Rubber and Rubber, and store waste sales revenue. In 2013, we expect that the general environment of consumption reduction in the “three major companies” will not change, and the same store growth in the company's main stores in Beijing is still worrying. Although the company has actively adjusted its operational focus to the newly acquired mass catering and group catering business, we believe that the results will not be obvious in a short period of time. As a result, our original profit expectations appeared too high. We mainly lowered the same store growth expectations for the company's old stores, and lowered the company's profit forecast for 2013-2014 from 0.51/0.69 yuan to 0.30/0.40 yuan, without taking into account the additional profits brought about by possible outsourced acquisitions, etc. Lower the rating to “hold.” Based on the above adjustments, regardless of additional dilution, the company's 2012-2014 EPS is expected to be 0.30/0.30/0.40 yuan, of which the 2012 EPS after excluding non-recurring income was 0.24 yuan. Currently, the company's main business PE corresponding to 2012-14 is 38/31/23 times, which is higher than the industry average. Considering that the negative impact of the “three public companies” consumption reduction on the company continues, the majority shareholders of the company are currently reducing their holdings, and the current valuation of the company is also high, so the company's rating was lowered from “increased holdings” to “holding.” risk factors. Major shareholders continue to reduce their holdings to suppress the company's stock price, and the risk that “three public consumption” controls will further increase, etc.

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