Main points of investment:
The growth rate of the main pharmaceutical industry accelerated in 2012, including traditional Chinese medicine and chemical medicine. After years of slow growth, the main pharmaceutical industry began to accelerate its growth in 2012: in 2012, the Q1-Q3 pharmaceutical industry achieved revenue of 310 million, 670 million and 1.02 billion, up 18%, 21% and 26% from the same period last year, and revenue growth accelerated quarter by quarter. At the same time, the gross profit margin of the main pharmaceutical industry increased steadily: the comprehensive gross profit margin of Q1-Q3 in 2012 was 63.17%, 67.50% and 71%, respectively. 93%, the gross profit margin shows a trend of increasing quarter by quarter. The quarterly increase in gross profit margin led to a substantial increase in operating profit: 2012Q1-Q3 's main pre-tax profit reached 47 million, 105 million and 150 million respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.24%, 29.44% and 52.33% respectively.
The company has many high-quality pharmaceutical assets. Major shareholders hope to strengthen and expand the potential varieties of pharmaceutical companies, including: Aodong Anshen Bunao liquid (sales over 400 million), Xuefu Zhuyu Oral liquid (protected variety of traditional Chinese medicine), Linaoxin capsule (protected variety of traditional Chinese medicine), Guyuan granule (protected variety of traditional Chinese medicine), compound Xiongdan Hepatitis B capsule (protected variety of traditional Chinese medicine), calf spleen extract (sales volume over 100 million), ribonucleic acid for injection, etc. These varieties are distributed among many subsidiaries. Since 2013, the company has combed its subsidiaries, increased capital, and invested in new biotechnology companies, showing the desire of major shareholders to strengthen the main pharmaceutical industry.
Artificial liver project brings imagination to the company in 2011, the company signed an agreement with the American Life Therapy Company (VTI) to initially invest 20 billion US dollars, with a stake of 5-6%, to invest in the artificial liver project. at the same time, the company will negotiate with VTI whether to continue to invest according to the progress of the project. China is a large country with liver disease, and about 400000 people die of liver disease every year. At present, liver transplantation is the only effective treatment for liver failure, but usually liver transplantation patients usually need to wait in line for a long time. Bioartificial liver, as an effective treatment, can help critically ill patients to transition the queuing period. At present, the artificial liver project has entered the third phase of the clinical trial in the United States and Europe. The artificial liver project has a broad market prospect and brings a huge imagination space to the company.
GF Securities Co., LTD. contributed rich cash flow. The start-up company of Tadong Iron Mine held a 21.03% stake in GF Securities Co., LTD. in 2013, and the net profit in the past few years was mainly contributed by GF Securities Co., LTD. 's investment income. As a private securities firm, GF Securities Co., LTD. has many advantages, such as high degree of marketization, flexible incentive mechanism and so on. At the end of September 2012, GF Securities Co., LTD. ranked third in total assets and ROE among the 19 listed securities firms, and is expected to achieve significant growth driven by innovative business in the future. The company holds a 30% stake in Tadong Iron Mine and has a mining capacity of 102 tons of iron concentrate, which is expected to start in 2013.
The current stock price only reflects the value of GF Securities Co., LTD.. It is estimated that the main pharmaceutical industry in 2012-2014 will be worth 2012 yuan, 0.23,0.28 yuan, and the reasonable value per share will be 5.06 yuan, which is 22 times that of PE in 2013. Taking the unanimous expectation of WIND as a reference, we predict that GF Securities Co., LTD. 's net profit from 2012 to 2014 will be 2.189 billion yuan, 3.037 billion yuan and 3.561 billion yuan. If we give a valuation of 30 times PE in 2013, we will contribute 21.40 yuan per share. Tadong Iron Mine is expected to contribute 96 million of the company's net profit each year, valuing it at 20 times PE and contributing 5.06 yuan per share. Taken together, we estimate that Jilin Aodong's reasonable share price is 28.66 yuan. We believe that the company's current share price only reflects the value of the company as a brokerage stock, but does not reflect the improvement of the main pharmaceutical industry. If the future operation of the company can be straightened out, the potential of the main pharmaceutical industry will be fully tapped. We suggest that investors actively pay attention to it, cover it for the first time, and give it an investment rating of "increasing holdings".
The risk indicates the systemic risk of the A stock market, which makes the share price of GF Securities Co., LTD. fluctuate greatly.