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五洲交通(600368)2012年年报点评:多元化发展取得突破 进军有色领域

中信證券 ·  Mar 12, 2013 00:00  · Researches

Investment highlights In 2012, revenue increased 134%, and net profit increased 15%. In 2012, the company achieved operating income of 5.389 billion yuan, an increase of 134% over the previous year; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 317 million yuan, an increase of 15% over the previous year; and EPS of 0.38 yuan, an increase of 15% over the previous year. Among them, the sharp increase in operating income is mainly due to the expansion of logistics trade business. Logistics trade continues to grow at a high rate, and profit contribution is still limited. The significant increase in the company's operating income is mainly due to the expansion of logistics trade business. In 2012, the company's logistics trade revenue reached 3,989 billion yuan, accounting for 74.2% of the main business revenue, an increase of 312% over the previous year. Since the second half of 2011, the company has been vigorously cultivating the logistics trade business, and revenue has increased dramatically as a result. Since the gross margin of this business is only 0.91%, far below the gross profit margin of 71% in the transportation industry and 55% in the real estate industry, its contribution to overall profit is still relatively limited. It is worth mentioning that the company's advance payment reached 970 million yuan, an increase of 230% over the previous year, mainly affected by the expansion of trade scale and land reserves. Toll revenue increased by about 10%, and business outside the province increased by 398%. The company's main road production is located in Guangxi Province. The export-oriented nature is not obvious, and toll revenue is not greatly affected by the macroeconomy as a result. In 2012, the company's toll revenue increased by about 10%. The main increase came from Tanbailu, which was acquired by the company at the end of 2010. The company's business revenue outside Guangxi Province increased 398% year on year to 960 million yuan, mainly from Shanghai Rongshun Logistics Co., Ltd., a third-level subsidiary of the company. It is planned to acquire Guangxi Tanghan Zinc and Indium to enter the non-ferrous industry. In order to enhance the resilience of the company's main business to risk, the company signed a “Reorganization Intent Agreement” with Guangxi Tanghan Zinc Indium Co., Ltd. and its actual controller, and initially proposed to restructure Tanghan Company through capital increase and stock expansion or other appropriate means to achieve control over Tanghan Company. In recent years, due to falling zinc prices and several policy shutdowns, Tanghan Company has been in a state of loss. It should not have a significant impact on the company's operations and financial conditions in the short term, but it is not ruled out that large capital expenses arising from related investments in the future will not be ruled out. This acquisition is the first breakthrough in the company's diversified development strategy in the mining sector, and the impact on performance is yet to be seen. Risk warning. Road toll policy adjustments, downturn in the real estate market, uncertain profit forecasts and valuations of mining earnings. Under the influence of toll exemptions, the company's annual toll revenue growth still exceeded double digits. Considering the possibility that profits will exceed expectations after the acquisition, we slightly raised the company's profit forecast for 2013-14. The company's EPS for 2013-15 is expected to be 0.40/0.46/0.51 yuan/share (the original 2013-14 forecast was 0.36/0.42 yuan), and the current A-share price is 4.22 yuan, corresponding to 2013-15 PE of 10.4/9.2/8.2X, respectively. Considering that the company has made breakthroughs in diversified development, it is expected that it will gradually contribute to performance in the future and maintain the company's “increase in holdings” rating.

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