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珠江钢管(1938.HK):行业景气度提升、公司盈利稳步向上

Pearl River Steel Pipe (1938.HK): the prosperity of the industry has improved, and the company's profits have been steadily upward.

交銀國際 ·  Mar 25, 2013 00:00  · Researches

The annual expenditure in the past 12 years has increased significantly compared with the same period last year. In the past 12 years, the company realized an operating income of 392.6 billion yuan and a profit of 3.1 billion yuan, an increase of 16.3% and 359% respectively over the same period last year, and a basic income of 0.31 yuan per share. Basically in line with our previous EPS0.30 forecast, the increase in turnover and government spending are the main reasons for the company's 12-year increase.

The volume of turnover, the increase in the gross profit margin ratio and the increase in the gross profit margin ratio of the company; and the increase in the gross profit margin ratio. The overall turnover of the company's direct submerged arc welded pipe (LSAW) and electrical resistance welded pipe (ERW) last year was 5.06 million tons, an increase of 13.5% over the same period last year. The volume was basically the same in the last half of the year. Spiral welded pipe (SSAW) could not be profitable because of its short construction time. In terms of gross profit margin, the overall gross profit margin was 17%, compared with 15.2% in the same period last year. The reason for the rise in gross profit margin: due to the high gross profit margin in some of the delivery lists in the first half of the year, and at the same time, due to the recovery of downstream demand, ERW successfully turned around this year, with LSAW/ERW margin of 16.9%, 8.7%, and 15.7%, respectively, 2.3% in the same period last year. In 2012, the company also received 108 million yuan in aid from the port government, an increase of 57.1 percent over the same period last year.

We believe that the decline is due to the vacuum period after the completion of previous large-scale projects, but the active expansion of overseas projects will help the company through this period. In the medium and long term, there are losses after the approval of large-scale projects.

Look forward to a large list in 13 years. The new Jiangsu-Zhejiang pipeline project may be approved soon, and the new pipeline is also in the plan. in addition to the start of the western transportation project, in addition to the main project, the pipeline project connected to the city will also be carried out. at this point, the construction of large-scale pipeline and projects will start at the same time this year, and the list may announce that it will enter the practical production section around the second half of the year, as a domestic LSAW enterprise, with a total capacity of 2.41 million yuan by the end of 12 years. The total capacity of the company has reached 3 million in 13 years, which will help the company to grasp the opportunities since the peak of oil infrastructure development during the 12th five-year Plan period.

Maintain the investment level of the company, lower the company target to the lower company target to HK$4.50. After excluding the government expense, it is estimated that the operating profit of the company's welded pipe will increase to 29.3%, indicating that the travel performance is constantly picking up, the company's operating model is stable, and it is less affected by the raw materials and downstream demand. Profit will be improved step by step as the new equipment can be released step by step. As the SSAW payroll is not yet profitable, regardless of the impact of SSAW on the company's earnings, the 13-year EPS has been adjusted from 0.41 to 0.36 EPS 0.57, corresponding to the target label to HK$4.50, and the 13-year PE is 10.0x.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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