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华鼎锦纶(601113):化纤中被低估的品种

民族證券 ·  Mar 24, 2013 00:00  · Researches

The company's performance for the fourth quarter of 2012 to the first quarter of 2013 is guaranteed: 1) We have calculated that the price difference between various types of nylon filament products and upstream raw materials is currently higher than the historical average - profitability is improving; 2) The gross margin data of the nylon manufacturing industry released by the Bureau of Statistics also shows a positive month-on-month profit ratio. Although the nylon manufacturing industry also has other varieties such as nylon 66, in addition to nylon 6, this data has some reference significance; 3) From September to December 2012, the operating rate of the industry was not low, and the inventory of finished products declined year-on-year. Production and sales Increased rate — volume of product sales. The market is “better or thinner”. The fundamentals of viscose and nylon companies are similar, but there is a gap in valuation. There is a big difference between valuation and market attention in the chemical fiber industry. Judging from our promotion process, some people think that nylon is a small commodity and not mainstream. However, we believe that although the production and industrial capital of nylon is slightly lower than that of viscose but no less than spandex, it is not taken seriously by the market, and I wonder if it is due to lack of hype or neglect. From a valuation perspective, the current valuation of viscose is above the historical average, while the valuation of nylon is lower than the historical average, and there is a certain gap. We believe there is room for improvement in the nylon industry's valuation in the future. The increase in industry inventories is a short-term disturbance, and there is no need to worry too much. Although stocks in the nylon industry are currently rising slightly, we think this is a short-term disturbance. China's textile and garment exports had a “good start” in the first two months of this year and positive PMI data for March. We believe that textile and garment exports may show a weak recovery trend this year. So there's no need to worry too much. Give an investment rating of “increase in holdings.” We expect the company's EPS to be 0.13 yuan, 0.15 yuan, and 0.25 yuan from 2012 to 2014, giving it an investment rating of “increase in holdings”. Risk warning. The risk that the recovery of the textile and garment industry will fall short of expectations.

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