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凯恩股份(002012)年报点评:受制于经济增速下滑 业绩同比下降

Kane shares (002012) Annual report comment: restricted by the decline in economic growth and performance compared with the same period last year

天相投顧 ·  Mar 26, 2013 00:00  · Researches

For the whole of 2012, the company achieved operating income of 864 million yuan, down 10.17% from the same period last year; operating profit of 105 million yuan, down 29.04% from the same period last year; net profit belonging to the owner of the parent company was 85.98 million yuan, down 27.22% from the same period last year; and realized basic earnings per share of 0.18 yuan. the annual dividend plan is 0.3 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares.

Macroeconomic deceleration, revenue of main products and gross profit margin fell both. The company is mainly engaged in the production and sales of industrial matching paper, filter paper, special food packaging paper and power batteries. At present, it is the only manufacturer in China that can serialize the production of electrolytic capacitor paper. Due to the strong relationship between the company's main products and domestic and foreign macro-economy, the slowdown of domestic economic growth in 2012 and the weak recovery in Europe and America have a great impact on the company's production and sales. For the whole year, the company's industrial supporting paper, filter paper and power batteries both experienced a decline in revenue and gross profit margin, while the gross profit margin of special food packaging paper increased due to its downstream weak cycle attribute and relatively strong pricing power. Taken together, the overall gross margin of the company's products fell by 17.51% in 2012 compared with the same period last year, which is the root cause of the decline in performance compared with the same period last year.

Research and development, technological transformation, production expansion, the company's long-term development foundation is still in place, the overall economic situation is still a major variable. The company is in a leading position in some domestic specialty paper products, and is currently focusing on product research and development, production line technical transformation, production capacity expansion, taking into account quality, efficiency and cost, implementing business strategy to meet future challenges. A variety of electrolytic capacitor paper developed by the company has filled the domestic blank, achieved domestic initiative and exclusive production, and a number of production technologies have reached the world's advanced level. At the same time, in the field of electrical paper and special long fiber paper, unique core technology, formula and technology have been formed to demonstrate the core competitiveness. It can be said that the company's favorable competitive position in the domestic specialty paper field has not changed, but looking forward to 2013, considering the strong cyclical industrial economic attributes of the company's products, we believe that the trend of the economic situation at home and abroad is still the biggest variable of the company's performance. the improvement of production and marketing and the smooth transmission of raw materials, labor and other cost factors to the downstream all depend on this.

Profit forecast and investment rating. It is estimated that the company's earnings per share from 2013 to 2014 are 0.20 yuan and 0.23 yuan respectively. According to the closing price on March 25, 2013, the corresponding dynamic price-to-earnings ratio is 32 times and 28 times respectively. Maintain a "neutral" investment rating.

Risk hint. 1) the risk of price fluctuation of raw materials such as bleached wood pulp, insulating wood pulp and hemp pulp; 2) the risk of macroeconomic adjustment exceeding expectations.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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