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顺发恒业(000631)年报点评:稳增长 高分红

天相投顧 ·  Mar 27, 2013 00:00  · Researches

Performance Overview: In 2012, the company achieved operating income of 2,766 billion yuan, an increase of 28.25% over the previous year; operating profit of 810 million yuan, an increase of 16.59% over the previous year; net profit attributable to owners of the parent company of 584 million yuan, an increase of 11.83% over the previous year; and basic earnings per share of 0.56 yuan. Cash dividends of 4 yuan (tax included) are distributed for every 10 shares. The sales situation is relatively good. In 2012, the company has 9 projects under construction (continued) for sale, including 8 renewal projects, 1 new sales project, and 1 additional completed project. Each project achieved a total contract sales area of 163,500 square meters and a sales contract amount of 2.76 billion yuan, an increase of 10.70% and 28.35% respectively over the same period last year. The main projects currently on sale are Jixiang Peninsula, Zerunyuan, and Mongkok City Phase II, which achieved contract amounts of 1,166 billion yuan, 34.598 million yuan, and 1,218 billion yuan respectively. The average sales prices were 18,422 yuan/square meter, 3,359 yuan/square meter, and 1,7057 yuan/square meter, respectively. Profitability has declined markedly, and cost control is better. The consolidated gross margin declined. During the reporting period, the company's consolidated gross margin was 43.52%, down 4.84 percentage points from the previous year. The period expenses were well controlled. The company's fee rate for the period was 4.92%, down 1.3 percentage points from the previous year. Among them, the sales expense ratio was 2.26%, down 1.46 percentage points from the previous year. There is little long-term financial pressure. The balance ratio at the end of the period was 74.61%. Excluding advance accounts, the real balance ratio was 25.48%, down 4.51 percentage points from the previous year; monetary capital at the end of the period was 904 million yuan, up 63% year on year; “monetary capitals/ (short-term borrowings+non-current liabilities due within one year)” was 1.26 times, up 0.84 year on year, and the short-term capital situation improved markedly. The pre-sale situation of the project is good, and the performance is highly targeted. The cash inflow received by the company during the period from selling products and providing services was 3,051 billion yuan, an increase of 32.4% over the previous year. The return of operating cash was significantly better than in the same period last year, and the pre-sale of projects was good. Advance accounts collected at the end of the period were 5.442 billion yuan, up 4.87% from the beginning of the period. Advance accounts were 196.75% of 2012 settlement revenue, and the 2013 performance was highly locked in. The project reserves are abundant. Inventory at the end of the period was 9.511 billion yuan, down 2.44% from the previous year, accounting for 85.86% of total assets, and project reserves were relatively abundant. The book value of investment real estate at the end of the period was 101 million yuan, an increase of 37.65% over the previous year, accounting for 0.91% of total assets. We previously estimated the company's earnings per share for 2013-2014 to be 0.66 yuan and 0.76 yuan respectively. Based on the closing price on 2013/03/25, the corresponding dynamic price-earnings ratios were 9 times and 8 times, respectively. Give an investment rating of “increased holdings.” Risk warning: Risk of sustained decline in performance.

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