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花样年控股(1777.HK):2012业绩良好 可望实现平稳增长

國元(香港) ·  Mar 29, 2013 00:00  · Researches

Investment highlights: The 2012 performance is in line with expectations, and is expected to achieve steady growth. The company's operating income during the period was about RMB 6.23 billion, up 11.4% year on year, in line with expectations; basic profit per share was RMB 0.22, up 4.29% year on year, which is basically in line with expectations. The Group's net debt ratio was 66.4%, down 7.8 percentage points from last year, and is at a reasonable level in the industry. The core profit per share is RMB 0.14, and the PE corresponding to the current price is 6.7. The company's cash increased by 161.7% to RMB 3.496 billion, which is quite well funded. The final dividend is 4.9 cents, which is a high level of dividend compared to the current price of HK$1.05. Focusing on Tier 1 and 2 cities, companies that just need market companies currently have land reserves of about 12.17 million square meters, mainly distributed in Tier 1 and 2 cities in the four major regions of the Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta, Beijing-Tianjin Metropolitan Area, and Cheng-Chongqing Economic Zone. The company increased its land reserves by more than 500,000 square meters in Chengdu, Shenzhen and Beijing in the second half of last year. The company's contract sales target for 2013 is 10 billion yuan. Currently, the new construction area is about 1.52 million square meters, the planned completion area is about 1.15 million square meters, and the saleable area is about 1.95 million square meters. The company believes that the market in second-tier cities (such as Chengdu and Guilin) will be dominated by immediate demand, and in the context of tight regulation, it will focus on just-needed products to achieve an organic combination of just-needed products and commercial complexes in the product structure. Expanding innovative real estate service platforms and looking at promising overseas markets. In addition to real estate business, the company also hopes to further expand community financial services to seek more stable profits. The company's “Color Life” characteristic community service has a gross margin of 60% and a net profit margin of 30%. Currently, it has 40 core business cities and a management area of 50.31 million square meters. The company also hopes to find high-value-added overseas markets in the future. It has set up overseas offices in Singapore and Tokyo, and has also invested in a Singaporean project with partners. The company expects that the new regulatory policy will not put too much pressure on housing prices in Tier 1 and 2 cities. It is expected that the mainland real estate market will continue to develop steadily this year. Based on the real estate business, the company establishes related services in eight major fields, including financial services, community services, property management, real estate development, business management, hotel management, cultural tourism, and health care, focusing on living space and experience. Innovative real estate services are expected to complement traditional real estate development business, bringing impetus to the company's continued steady growth. The target price is HK$2.04, maintaining the buying rating: As of the end of 2012, RNAV per share was HK$3.65. Based on the current stock price calculation, the company's stock price discount rate is 67.4%, which is 40% to 45% higher than the industry average, and the valuation is still low. The profit per share is RMB 0.22, which is 4.3 times the PE corresponding to the current price; the core profit per share is RMB 0.14, and the PE corresponding to the current price is 6.7, which has a valuation advantage. Taking into account the NAV valuation and the company's future growth rate and valuation level, the company's target price was adjusted to HK$2.04, which is equivalent to 6.8 times PE in 2013, with room for an increase of 71.4% from the current price.

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