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顺发恒业(000631)2012年年报点评:2013年业绩锁定性较高

國信證券 ·  Mar 27, 2013 00:00  · Researches

Net profit increased by 11.5% and EPS of 0.56 yuan in 2012. The performance was slightly lower than expected. The company achieved operating income of 2,766 billion yuan, an increase of 28.25% over the previous year; total profit of 808 million yuan, an increase of 16.87% over the previous year; and realized net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 583 million yuan, an increase of 11.5% over the previous year, and an EPS of 0.56 yuan, slightly lower than our expectations, with a distribution of 4 yuan for every 10 shares (tax included). Real estate sales maintained steady growth, and land acquisition remained prudent. During the reporting period, the company achieved a total sales area of 163,500 square meters, a sales amount of 2,759 billion yuan, an increase of 10.7% and 28.35% over the previous year, respectively. Sales mainly came from the Jixiang Peninsula Project, the Mongkok City Phase II project, and the Zerunyuan Phase I project, which contributed 1,166 billion yuan, 1,218 billion yuan and 35 million yuan respectively during the reporting period. The company added only one new project in Xiaoshan District of Hangzhou during the reporting period, increasing the project reserve by 112,000 square meters, and the land acquisition amount was 985 million yuan. This shows that the company is still cautious in the land market. At the end of the period, the company had a total land reserve of about 1.8 million square meters. The performance is highly locked in. The company with growth potential currently has an advance account payment of 5.442 billion yuan and a 13-year performance lockdown of more than 150%. It is ranked high in the industry, and future growth is worry-free. In addition, the company has 9 sales and saleable projects in '13, with an estimated total value of over 10 billion dollars. According to the company's 13-year business plan, the company will speed up inventory turnover, not only reduce project risks and prepare capital for new business development, but also lay the foundation for the company's high performance growth in the future. Financials are sound, cash flow has improved dramatically, and major shareholders have provided facilities for corporate financing. The company's balance ratio at the end of the period was 74.61%, the balance ratio after deducting advance payments was 25.48%, and the net debt ratio was only 35.29%, which is a low level in the industry; monetary capital/ (non-current liabilities+short-term loans due within one year) was 1.26, a significant increase of 0.84 over the same period. The company's cash flow situation improved significantly during the reporting period. Monetary capital increased sharply by 63% year on year, showing a good debt structure and good short-term solvency. The majority shareholder of the company is Wanxiang Group. The group owns Wanxiang Finance Company, a non-bank financial institution, to facilitate the company's financing. First coverage, giving a “careful recommendation” rating. In summary, we expect the company's EPS in 13-14 to be 0.71/0.93 yuan, corresponding PE is 8.7/6.7X, and RNAVPS is 8.6 yuan. Coverage for the first time, giving it a “careful recommendation” rating.

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