Conclusions and suggestions:
In 2012, Liuhua achieved revenue of 2.8 billion yuan, YOY + 3.24%; realized net profit belonging to shareholders of listed companies of 41 million yuan, YOY-39.04%, equivalent to 0.10 yuan of EPS. The company plans to pay a cash dividend of 0.6 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares, with a dividend yield of 1.07%. Maintain a rating.
During the reporting period, the company's performance decreased significantly compared with the same period last year. First, due to the prominent contradiction between supply and demand of some products, especially the serious shortage of nitric acid products and hydrogen peroxide downstream demand of the company's leading products, market competition intensified and product prices dropped sharply. Among them, the unit price of ammonium nitrate decreased by 254yuan per ton, resulting in a profit reduction of 69 million yuan and concentrated nitric acid by 137.84 yuan per ton, resulting in a profit reduction of 10 million yuan. The unit price of hydrogen peroxide decreased by 324.61 yuan per ton, resulting in a profit decrease of 65 million yuan, resulting in a total profit reduction of 144 million yuan. Second, compared with the same period last year, electricity prices increased by 0.037 yuan per kilowatt-hour, cost expenditure increased by 44 million yuan, and railway transport charges were raised during the period, and product transport costs increased.
From a product point of view: first, in 2012, the company's urea plate achieved revenue of 670 million yuan, YOY + 9.19%. In 2012, the price of chemical fertilizer products, especially urea products, improved, the company increased urea production, output increased by 25.14% compared with the same period last year, and sales increased by 5%. Second, ammonium nitrate achieved revenue of 500 million yuan, YOY-7.40%. Ammonium nitrate is the company's leading product, which is mainly used in downstream civil explosive production enterprises. Due to strict control of infrastructure investment and insufficient demand from downstream enterprises, the trading price of ammonium nitrate decreased significantly. The sales volume during the reporting period increased by 5.38% compared with the same period last year, while business income decreased by 7.40%. Third, the coal sector achieved revenue of 163 million yuan. YOY-51.15%, is mainly due to the government's request to speed up the integration of small coal mines and the establishment of large coal groups. Aozichong Coal Mine is expected to be within the scope of integration because of its small production capacity and reserves. For this reason, Xinyi Mining transferred its 60% stake in Aozichong Coal Mine, resulting in a significant decline in coal business revenue during the period compared with the same period.
From a quarterly point of view, the company's 4Q achieved a revenue of 620 million yuan, while YOY-14.5% Teng 4Q lost 4 million yuan in a single quarter, compared with a net profit of 23 million yuan in the same period last year. The decline in the performance of 4Q compared with the same period last year is mainly due to the decline in the price of nitric acid products. The company's EPS in a single quarter is 0.058 yuan, 0.042 yuan, 0.011 yuan,-0.009 yuan respectively.
From the perspective of the industry, the company is a chemical fertilizer enterprise with coal as raw materials. in recent years, the domestic chemical fertilizer industry has made some development, but it has gradually shown many problems, such as overcapacity, serious product homogenization, lack of core competitiveness and so on. According to the statistics of Petrochina and the Chemical Industry Federation, by the end of 2012, the production capacity (physical capacity) of synthetic ammonia and urea in China had reached 67.3 million tons and 71.3 million tons respectively, with an excess capacity of about 18 million tons of urea, and the economic situation was still grim in 2013. the industry boom is hardly for the better.
It is estimated that the EPS of the company in 2013 will be 0.136 yuan and 0.177 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 41 times and 32 times respectively. At present, there are no signs of a rebound in the company's prosperity and maintain its rating.