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栋梁新材(002082)年报点评:安置房保障房是未来增长点

浙商證券 ·  Apr 9, 2013 00:00  · Researches

Performance summary: 45% year-on-year decline. In 2012, the company achieved operating income of 10.973 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.91%; realized net profit of 86.41 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 45.53%; return on net assets was 8.13%, and basic earnings per share was 0.36 yuan, exceeding our previous expectations of 0.31 yuan. The decline in demand and low prices led to a decline in performance. First, due to the continued deterioration of the macroeconomic situation at the international and domestic levels, the decline in industry demand led to a decline in the company's printed aluminum plate base sales volume. At the same time, the company's printed aluminum sheet product sales price adopted the “price of the main raw materials (aluminum ingots) at the time of delivery plus processing costs”. In 2012, the spot price of aluminum ingots continued to be low, reducing the company's product profitability level; secondly, the company's new “50,000 tons of energy-saving aluminum alloy profile project” was completed and put into production one after another, leading to significant fixed costs, unit mold costs, energy consumption, etc. Degrees The rise has lowered the gross profit level of the product tonnes. Positive factors: The cash flow situation has improved markedly, and the company's cash flow situation has improved markedly: in 2012, the net cash flow from the company's operating activities was 202.7 million yuan, an increase of 142 times over the previous year, mainly due to a year-on-year decrease of 80 million yuan in operating receivables, while operating payable items increased by 33 million yuan year-on-year. The increase in payable projects is roughly equivalent to disguised financing, and a sharp increase in operating cash flow balance is conducive to improving the ability of enterprises to withstand cycles. Future outlook: Resettlement housing and affordable housing is the main growth point. Construction profiles are closely related to the construction industry and urbanization projects. As “urbanization” continues to advance, the potential of the small and medium-sized city market is gradually being stimulated, and it is still possible to expect the industry to continue to develop rapidly. At the same time, with economic development and the increase in government housing resettlement and guaranteed housing construction efforts, consumption of aluminum profiles for construction will continue to be strong in the long term, and government housing and affordable housing will be the main growth points in the future. Profit Forecast and Investment Rating: Maintaining Purchases We predict that the company will achieve net profit of 120 million yuan, 163 million yuan and 197 million yuan in 2013-2015, with year-on-year increases of 39%, 36% and 21%, respectively. The corresponding dynamic PE is 13 times, 9 times and 8 times, respectively. As a leading manufacturer of aluminum profiles for energy-saving buildings in China, the company will benefit from the advancement of the country's urbanization process and the rapid development of government housing housing and guaranteed housing construction. We maintain the company's “buy” investment rating.

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