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浩物股份(000757)深度研究:汽车曲轴行业的专业制造商

天相投顧 ·  May 6, 2013 00:00  · Researches

This report focuses on short-term factors. The company plans to introduce two car crankshaft production lines and upgrade existing production equipment, which will help the company improve its product supply capacity; at the same time, the upgrade of the crankshaft product structure will promote the improvement of the company's overall profitability. Long-term factors. Tianjin Haowu Electromechanical, the majority shareholder of the company, has a relatively complete automotive industry chain, and the company, as the only listed company under the majority shareholder, is expected to become a platform for integrating industrial resources for Tianjin Haowu Electromechanical in the future. This will have a long-term impact on the expansion of the company's business scale and increase in profitability. Key investment points: As the urbanization process progresses, residents' incomes increase, and actual purchasing power increases, the scale of demand for additional car purchases and exchanges in the domestic market will continue to expand. The growth rate of automobile sales in the domestic market is expected to be around 8% in 2013. Furthermore, benefiting from the decline in Japanese car sales, the improvement in sales of own-brand cars, and the gradual rise in market share, the supporting demand of the company's downstream automaker customers is expected to be better than in 2012. The company will add two new passenger car production lines, and the infrastructure is expected to be completed by the end of 2013. After production is put into operation, it is expected that an additional production capacity of 300,000 pieces will be added, which will effectively ease the company's production capacity bottlenecks, improve production efficiency, and expand product demand. The company plans to upgrade existing production equipment. The share of car crankshaft products with high technical content and high product profitability in sales will increase, which in turn will promote the improvement of the company's overall profitability. If the non-public offering is successful, it will help improve the company's capital structure, ease the pressure on the company's capital, drastically reduce the company's balance ratio, and enhance the company's resilience to risks. Tianjin Haowu Electromechanical, the majority shareholder of the division, is a holding subsidiary of Tianjin Bussan Group, one of the world's top 500 enterprises. It owns the entire automotive industry chain. The channels and resources it has also helped listed companies enter the product support system for joint venture automobile brands. The investment rating was raised to “increased holdings.” Based on operating expectations for the company's existing industrial resources, we forecast that the company's earnings per share from 2013 to 2015 will be 0.18 yuan, 0.15 yuan, and 0.18 yuan, respectively. If Tianjin Haowu Electromechanical invests assets into the company in the future, the company's performance levels in 2014 and 2015 will be higher than our current expectations. Referring to the average price-earnings ratio level of listed auto parts companies and the price-earnings ratio level of related companies engaged in similar business, the company's reasonable valuation range is 35 to 38 times. If the company can become an integrated platform for major shareholders' industrial resources in the future, the company may be expected to receive a corresponding valuation premium

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