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永利股份(300230)中报业绩预告点评:中报业绩符合预期 炜丰并表为增长主因

中信證券 ·  Jul 5, 2017 00:00  · Researches

  Matters: The company released the 2017 interim performance forecast on the evening of July 3. It is expected to achieve net profit of about 140.1223 million yuan to 156.293 million yuan in the first half of the year (53.8932 million yuan in the same period last year), an increase of 160% to 190% over the previous year. The company's net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in the first half of 2017 is expected to increase compared to the same period last year. The impact of non-recurring profit and loss on net profit is about 5.75 million yuan. Comment: Weifeng International's account transfer was also shown as the main reason for the increase in earnings in the interim report. In the first half of 2017, in the company's main business, the lightweight conveyor belt business and precision molding business in the automobile and home appliance industries maintained steady growth; the company's non-public offering of shares raised funds to purchase 100% of Weifeng International Holdings Limited (“Weifeng International”) and added precision molding business in the precision toys and consumer electronics industries. Weifeng International began merging in November 2016. The scope of the company's merger during the reporting period increased Weifeng International compared to the same period last year. Based on this performance forecast and Q1 quarterly report estimates, 2017Q2 achieved net profit of 0.71 to 87 billion yuan, an increase of 103%-149% over the previous year. Among them, after deducting Weifeng's merger, the company's original business is expected to grow at a year-on-year rate of 10-15%. Growth remains stable, in line with market expectations. Entering Tesla's supply chain is expected to benefit from Tesla's construction of a factory in China. In 2015, the company announced that Qingdao Yinglian Auto Parts Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of its subsidiary Qingdao Yingdong Molding Technology, signed a cooperation contract with Tesla. According to the contract, Tesla will include Qingdao accessories in the supply chain that develops, supplies products, and provides supporting services. According to the company's disclosure on the interactive platform, the company currently maintains a cooperative relationship with Tesla. Although the current business volume is small, if Tesla successfully builds a factory in China in the future, the company's business is expected to expand rapidly. Join hands with Shinba to enjoy the express delivery industry's listing dividends. The growth rate of intelligent sorting is expected to exceed expectations. In July 2015, the company entered the field of intelligent sorting systems through a capital increase to hold 51% of Shinba Technology's shares. After nearly two years of run-ins and expansion of cooperation, the company's orders have continued to increase. In particular, long-term stable cooperative relationships with listed/pre-listed express delivery companies such as Shentong, SF Express, and Yuantong have made it possible for the company to enjoy the demand dividends of the express delivery industry's listing wave, and the performance of the transformation strategy is worth looking forward to. In 2016, Xinba Technology achieved revenue of 60.65 million yuan and attributable net profit of 962,100 yuan. We expect that the company's performance in the field of intelligent sorting will explode in 2017 and open up room for growth in the next 5-10 years. Risk factors: 1. The promotion of intelligent sorting systems falls short of expectations; 2. The decline in product sales brought about by the macroeconomic downturn. Maintain a “buy” rating. Considering the stable performance of the company's traditional business, there is still some room for conflict within the company after multiple acquisitions, we lowered the 2017/18/19 company's net profit forecast to 3.42/4.45/543 million yuan (original forecast 2017/18 net profit of 4.13/575 million yuan), corresponding to EPS of 0.75/0.98/1.20 yuan (after dilution of the allotted share capital, the original forecast for 2017/18 was 1.34/1.61 yuan), giving the company a valuation of 30 times in 2017 and lowering the target price to 22.6 yuan. Maintain a “buy” rating.

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