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金山股份(600396)一季报点评:短期成长性不足

安信證券 ·  May 2, 2013 00:00  · Researches

Year-on-year increase in performance: The first quarter of 2013 achieved operating income of 1.10 billion yuan, up 19.3% year on year, and realized net profit attributable to owners of the parent company of 81.96 million yuan, up 94.7% year on year, achieving earnings per share of 0.2406 yuan. The performance was higher than market expectations. Reasons for the increase in performance: (1) Investment income: a year-on-year increase of 39.79 million yuan, an increase of 38.5%, mainly due to the year-on-year increase in net profit of the participating subsidiary Shenyang Huarun Thermal Power; (2) Dandong Jinshan Thermal Power: In the same period last year, it achieved a total profit of 22.68 million yuan this quarter, which is also the main reason why its performance was higher than market expectations; (3) The sale of shares in Huanren Jinshan Thermal Power was completed in July last year, with a loss of 6.65 million yuan in the same period last year; (4) The decline in coal prices: the company's gross profit capacity increased due to the decline in coal prices, and the company's gross profit capacity increased Interest rates rose 5.7 year over year By one percentage point, it was basically the same from month to month. The future focus is on the Baiyinhua project: The company's future focus is mainly on the Baiyinhua Power Generation 2 x 660,000 kilowatt installed capacity project. At the same time, it also participated in the first phase of the Haizhou Open Pit Coal Mine plan with a scale of 5 million tons/year, and the second phase will eventually reach the overall plan of 24 million tons/year, and long-term performance growth can be expected. However, in the short term, Bai Yinhua Phase II has yet to be approved. The coal market has experienced an inflection point, and short-term growth is insufficient. Investment advice: Since the additional issuance has not been approved, we are not considering the additional issuance. We expect the utilization hours in Liaoning Province to decline in the next few years, and the company will not put into operation any new projects in the short term. The company's EPS is expected to be 0.64 yuan, 0.55 yuan, and 0.51 yuan respectively. The performance is declining. The corresponding PE is 8.9 times, 10.2 times, and 11.1 times, maintaining a “neutral-A” investment rating. The target price for 6 months is 6.4 yuan. Risk warning: sharp drop in utilization hours, lower than expected drop in coal prices, delays in construction, etc.;

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