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汉缆股份(002498)年报点评:期货持仓浮亏拖累一季度净利润

華泰證券 ·  Apr 24, 2013 00:00  · Researches

The annual report performance is generally in line with expectations. In 2012, the company's total revenue fell 2.38% year on year to 3.675 billion yuan, and net profit attributable to listed companies fell 10.9% year on year to 255 million yuan, achieving an EPS of 0.36 yuan. Among them, Changzhou Bayi's consolidated net profit was 017.5 million yuan, and net profit for the whole year after deducting non-recurring profit and loss (including the first four months of last year) was 29 million yuan, exceeding Changneng Electric's performance commitment amount by 0.5 million yuan. The 2012 annual performance promise was fulfilled. The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.5 yuan (tax included) for every 10 shares to all shareholders, with an increase of 5 shares for every 10 shares. Net profit declined in the first quarter of 2013 due to floating losses in futures positions. The company's total revenue for the first quarter increased 40.3% year on year to 863 million yuan, while net profit attributable to listed companies fell 34.4% year on year to 29 million yuan, achieving an EPS of 0.04 yuan. The large increase in floating losses in futures copper and aluminum positions is the main reason for the decline in performance. Affected by this, the profit from changes in fair value for the first quarter was -29.6986 million yuan, compared to 2,516,400 yuan in the same period last year. The company expects the year-on-year change in the interim report performance to be -25% to 5%. We speculate that factors such as fluctuations in raw material prices and futures positions in the second quarter will have a certain impact on the company's earnings from changes in fair value and actual net profit at that time. High-end products have been recognized, and the advantages of the industry have not diminished. According to the annual report, 1) the company's 500kV large-length, 2500mm2 large-section cross-linked cable won the bid for the Beijing Electric Power Company project in November last year. This is the first time that the national grid has used a domestically produced large-length 500kV ultra-high voltage ultra-high voltage ultra-high voltage ultra-high voltage ultra-high voltage power cable; 2) the 220kV ultra-high voltage cross-linked power cable YJLW02-1*2500 filled the gap in domestic brand large-section ultra-high voltage cross-linked power cable market applications; 3) The company is the first domestic enterprise to develop a large-length photoelectric composite submarine cable integrating electricity and signal transmission for CNOOC, breaking the international giant cable China's monopoly position; 4) The company is the first company in China to develop mining cables for coal mining machines, variable frequency mining cables, and 35kV ethylene propylene rubber power cables. We believe that the scientific research advantages of independent innovation will help the company achieve long-term steady development. Maintain a “neutral” rating. Taking into account the total net fair value change income and investment income for the first quarter, the impact of future copper price fluctuations on this data is not considered yet. We expect that in 2013 and 2014, the company's current assets will achieve EPS of 0.33 yuan and 0.39 yuan, respectively, corresponding to 27.1 times and 23.2 times P/E, respectively, under current share capital. We are actively following the company's efforts at the management level and expectations for subsequent performance improvements. Risk warning: 1) The growth rate of investment in power construction may slow down, and market competition may become fierce; 2) business expansion may fall short of expectations; 3) fluctuations in raw material prices may affect the final profit.

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