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建新股份(300107)深度研究:环保趋严 竞争格局变化 建新再起航

廣發證券 ·  Jun 3, 2013 02:00  · Researches

Core view: Environmental inspections are becoming stricter, small production capacity has withdrawn from the market, and the production of chemical products in the amino industry chain between leading beneficiaries has caused significant pollution. With the strengthening of environmental inspections, some small enterprises have now withdrawn or are in the process of withdrawing from the market. For industry leaders such as Jianxin Co., Ltd., it is expected to benefit from two aspects: on the one hand, they may benefit from a further increase in market share; on the other hand, they may benefit from rising product prices driven by reduced supply. The fund-raising project was fully put into operation. Entering a new stage of growth, the company's fund-raising projects were put into operation one after another in 2012, and the overall production capacity has basically doubled. The production capacity bottlenecks that plagued the company before listing were resolved. It is proposed to acquire Qingyun Hualong to further standardize the industry order and equity incentives to promote the steady growth of the company. By mastering key technologies in the “inter-amino” industry chain, gradually increasing market share, environmental protection, technology, and cost, building the three major barriers of the amino industry chain, performance elasticity estimation, assuming that production cost data such as raw materials, labor, depreciation, etc. and production and sales data are relatively stable, the company's 2013 EPS is sensitive to the prices of 2,5 acid and meta-hydroxyl. For details, see the text. Profit forecast and investment recommendations We estimate that the company's EPS for 2013-2015 was 0.45 yuan, 0.59 yuan, and 0.80 yuan, respectively. The following factors are comprehensively taken into account: (1) the company's dominant position in the “inter-amino industry chain”; (2) stricter environmental inspections and the continuous elimination of small production capacity; (3) the continuous expansion of downstream demand areas with high added value; (4) the commissioning of fund-raising projects to provide increased production capacity; (5) as industry concentration continues to increase, product prices in the amino industry chain are expected to rise. Based on this, the company was given a “buy” rating. Risk warning 1. Production pollution incidents; 2. Terminal demand continues to be sluggish; 3. Core product advantages have disappeared.

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