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潍柴重机(000880):“海洋维权、气化内河”双轮驱动业务启动在即

安信證券 ·  May 20, 2013 00:00  · Researches

The company's high-power medium-speed engines helped the Group's engines achieve the “5810” development plan. Weichai Group proposed a “5810” development plan for the engine business, which means that the revenue scale exceeded 50 billion yuan in 2012, 80 billion yuan in 2015, and 100 billion in 2020. Currently, the Group's engine business comes from Weichai Power (accounting for more than 90%) and Weichai Heavy Machinery. However, Weichai Power has a share of 35-40% in the domestic heavy truck market, and it is unlikely that it will achieve leapfrog growth in the future. Heavy machinery has successfully developed gas marine engines and generator sets through the introduction of digestion and absorption MAN products. The product range has been further expanded, and the company's marine medium speed motors are expected to boost the Group's engine business to achieve leaps and bounds. Driven by the dual power of “marine rights protection” and “gasification of inland rivers”, the 2014 business reached an inflection point. In the next 1-2 years, the company will mainly benefit from the upgrading of fishing vessel equipment and the acceleration of marine law enforcement vessel construction; we estimate that fishing vessel equipment upgrades will drive an average annual market size of about 3.5 billion yuan; at the same time, by 2015, the China Maritime Administration plans to build 36 large patrol boats, and the construction of official vessels will accelerate the rapid growth in demand for high-power medium-speed engines. From a medium- to long-term perspective, it mainly benefits from the launch of the country's “gasification inland waterway and green shipping” strategy. We estimate that the annual market size of inland waterway ship LNG engines is 4.95 billion yuan. The management changed, and the new team led the development of a new strategy. The senior management team was readjusted in August 2012, and Ma Yuxian was appointed as CEO and general manager. Mr. Ma was previously the chairman/general manager of Westport New Energy Engine Company, a subsidiary of the Group. During his tenure, sales revenue from the Westport New Energy Gas Engine business doubled. President Ma's arrival is expected to bring a new development strategy to the company's business. Gu Wenhai is the executive general manager, and Mr. Gu was previously the general manager and assistant to the president of Hangzhou Zhonggao. The successful attraction of rival executives explained the company's good business platform and development prospects. Mass production of high-power medium-speed motors replaced imports, and the company actively adjusted sales policies and made efforts to segment the market. After more than two years of technological digestion and absorption and further exploration, the company's high-power medium-speed diesel engine project production, supply and marketing system has been initially straightened out. It is expected that mass production will gradually be achieved in 2013. Currently, the company has orders of 150 million yuan for large machines, which can fully meet the production schedule. With the continuous release of mass production capacity, large machine projects are expected to gradually reverse strategic losses. At the same time, in 2013, the company actively adjusted its sales policy and flexibly adjusted its sales strategy on the basis of regional agent packaging sales, which greatly enhanced the enthusiasm of agents. Raise the rating to increase holdings to -A, and the target price for 6 months is 10.60 yuan. We expect the company's revenue growth rate of 12.1%, 23.6%, and 14.8% from 2013 to 2015, net profit growth of 23.8%, 60.9%, and 48.8%, and a compound net profit growth rate of 43.6% over the next 3 years; corresponding to EPS of 0.33 yuan, 0.53 yuan, and 0.79 yuan. The rating was raised to “Increased holdings - A”, and the target price for 6 months was 10.60 yuan, corresponding to 20 times dynamic PE in 2014. Risk warning. 1. Mass production of high-power medium-speed engine projects falls short of expectations; 2. Policy risks related to LNG marine engines. 3. Risk of increased depreciation due to the transformation of casting and forging projects

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