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朗源股份(300175):渠道复制 快速成长

光大證券 ·  May 13, 2013 00:00  · Researches

We are optimistic about Langyuan's logic: 1) Use supermarkets and other channels to expand the domestic market. However, this model of cooperation with supermarkets is a win-win situation: Langyuan can replace the traditional dealer procurement model in supermarkets, quickly improve distribution efficiency, provide rich categories and sufficient demand, and unify and standardize the products supplied, effectively reducing procurement costs for large supermarkets. The cooperation model between the company and Yonghui has been verified. 2) The cooperative model can be quickly replicated. Yonghui is a benchmark company in the fresh food market and a model for many companies to follow. Currently, Langyuan has taken over Yonghui's two main markets: Fujian and Chongqing. Next, Langyuan will continue to expand cooperation models with other supermarkets. We believe that this model will be quickly replicated under the premise of a win-win situation. 3) Diversification of categories. By using foreign distributors to import local fruit and then distribute goods through domestic channels, this will be an important growth point for the company in the future. From relying on exports to taking both internal and external paths: Of the company's revenue of 458 million dollars in 2012, export sales accounted for 65%, compared to more than 90% before. Since 2012, the company has been actively expanding its domestic business. We expect the company's export sales ratio to drop to 35% in 2013. Long-term and short-term views on the company: This year and next two years, the company's revenue will show explosive growth, along with a rapid increase in performance. In the medium to long term, the development path from industrialization to the industrial chain is the path of development of many industries: for many reasons, opening up the upper and lower industries and effectively connecting them can reduce the cost of intermediate links. Langyuan's future model is to replace the original decentralized dealer supply model. Through planting and procurement at our own base, we can directly connect with downstream agricultural supermarkets. Ensure food safety through strict standardized procedures, and rely on sufficient contracted planting bases to achieve stable supply and uniform standards. Profit forecast and rating: We predict that the company's compound profit growth rate for the next 3 years will be 87%. The 13-15 EPS will be 0.16, 0.24, and 0.32 respectively, giving 20-25 times PE in 2014, and the target price of 4.8-6 yuan to maintain the buying rating. Risk warning: For fresh fruit, the company's domestic pricing model is cost addition. If the price fluctuates greatly, the price increase will fail.

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