I. Overview of events
We have recently conducted a survey of the company and exchanged views on the industry and the company's operational planning and production research and development.
II. Analysis and judgment
The main products of the company are consumer products, which are weakly related to the economy. Strong drop-resistant household foil, medicine foil and double zeros account for 80% of the total output of the company's products, mainly related to consumption, weakly related to the economy, and belong to the rigid demand of life. The company flexibly adjusts the proportion of each product according to the market situation, and the production line also has flexible production conditions. At present, the company's quality and sales channels can effectively ensure that the products can be digested by the market after they are put into production. In addition, the company has a trade background, so marketing is a strong point. The general customers of the company place orders 2 months in advance. The closed-door contract model is adopted, so if the bulk price falls during the 2-month period of the contract implementation, it will be conducive to the increase in the company's profits.
The inflection point of the company's performance is expected to begin with 2013H2. The commissioning of new projects and the capitalization of financial expenses are expected to double the growth of performance from 2014 to 2015.
The company's performance inflection point is expected to start at 2013H2, mainly based on 1) the company 2013Q1 due to the Spring Festival holiday, shipments reduced by half a month, so Q1 net profit of about 6 million yuan. 2013Q2 due to the new production of 100000 tons of foil project is expected to begin to consolidate, may increase the cost of about 17 million yuan, so 2013H1 performance forecast a net profit of about 500-10 million yuan. 2) the company's new aluminum foil production capacity of 100000 tons has been put into production since May, but in view of the conversion of Q2, 2013H2 is expected to contribute to the performance, and we estimate a full-year net profit of 0.7-86 million yuan. 3) from 2014 to 2015, we expect the net profit to reach 177 million yuan and 352 million yuan respectively, and the corresponding EPS is 0.38 yuan and 0.76 yuan respectively. The flow price of materials within the company shall refer to the market price. Therefore, the main purpose of the company's new cold rolling process such as ingot casting and roll casting is to ensure the raw material supply and quality stability of cold rolling, and then to ensure the full production and quality of aluminum foil. The actual contribution profit is very small. As a result, the growth of the company's final profit contribution is mainly determined by aluminum foil production until 2014. In addition, through the capital increase to the Qinghai subsidiary in 2013, the company is expected to obtain a local project loan with a five-year interest rate of 8-1 billion yuan. Replacing the original self-owned funds may have a positive effect on loan capitalization this year. However, hot rolling still needs new capital investment to offset some of the positive effects of capitalization.
The safety pad of the company's stock price in 2013 is 5.07 yuan, which is expected to become the safety pad of the company's stock price in 2013. The company will have the concept of lightweight cars and high-speed rail in the future. After hot rolling is put into production, it mainly locates the high-precision hot-rolled aluminum plate and strip represented by automobile composite foil and alloy plate (automobile structure, railway carriage, a small number of cans). Qinghai hot rolling provides high value-added products, composite aluminum foil-brazing foil, mainly used in automobile radiator.
Third, risk tips:
1) the industry stagnates; 2) the cost of raw materials continues to fall; 3) the fund-raising projects are lower than expected.