The Chuzhou project is about to ignite, and there is more momentum for performance growth in the second half of the year: the Chuzhou crystal wine glass project will be launched in early June. It is expected that commissioning will be completed by the end of June, and the product will be sold offline in mid-late July. The company's 35,000-ton fund-raising project has been in operation for over a year. With this project, the company has established a learning curve in the production and sale of medium and high-end glassware. It is expected that the time it takes for the Chuzhou project to be completed to contribute profit will be greatly shortened compared to the 35,000-ton project. The factory price for a single wine glass of the project will be 9-10 yuan, and the gross profit margin will be around 45%. With the commissioning of the Chuzhou project in the second half of the year, the company's performance growth momentum will be more sufficient. Entering the supermarket system and completing the transformation from manufacturing to brand: In March of this year, the company's products officially entered the supermarket channel, starting a direct sales model. The company sold the products at the factory price to the wholly-owned subsidiary Shanghai Shige, and Shanghai Shigeo then sold the products to the supermarket channel at about 2.5 times the factory price. The company has now signed supply agreements with national joint procurement supermarkets such as Carrefour, Metro, Grand Runfa, Tesco, Hualian, China Resources, Agricultural Industry and Commerce. It is expected that the supply contract will be signed with Walmart in June, and delivery will be achieved in July. According to our estimates, the supermarket channel is expected to achieve sales of around 50 million this year, and the gross margin is expected to be around 60%. We believe that entering the supermarket system has not only enabled the company to enter a market that was completely empty until now, but also means that it is shifting towards brand consumption. The country fights corruption and promotes famous brands to benefit companies: the new government came to power to vigorously crack down on corruption. Affected by this, the domestic high-end restaurant industry is under heavy pressure, and many high-end hotels have quietly transitioned to mid-range restaurants. Since the high-end restaurant industry mainly uses glassware from top European brands (mostly handmade in Italy, the Czech Republic, and Germany, and the price is generally above 50 yuan/piece), the transformation of the high-end restaurant industry to mid-range catering is beneficial to the company's current vigorous entry into the high-end glassware market. As can be seen from the clothing worn by the country's president and his wife during their overseas visits and the use of domestic brands for official vehicles, the country will strongly support and promote national brands in the future. Currently, domestic medium and high-end glassware is in a stage where overseas brands are absolutely monopolized. The company is the only famous brand enterprise that has entered the medium and high-end mechanical glassware industry, and is expected to benefit from the increasing national brand preferences in the future. Deeply cultivate channels and lay out urbanization: Urbanization is an important focus for the future development of the country. The rapid development of small and medium-sized cities will bring about the internal migration of industries and people. With it, the rise of the catering and hospitality industries in small and medium-sized cities, and the glassware industry will benefit from the development of urbanization. In the past, companies always held dealer order meetings at their headquarters, which were generally attended by agents at the provincial level. In order to better lay out urbanization, the company will set up dealer order meetings by province this year, which will help prefecture-level and county-level dealers from all provinces to participate in the conference. We are about to enter the second period of high growth, and the rating will be raised to “buy”: we expect the company's EPS in 2013-2014 to be 0.48 yuan and 0.73 yuan, and the current SME valuation is 24 times higher. Although the company's current valuation is too high, considering that it has transformed from a manufacturing enterprise into a branded consumer goods brand, and that after the Chuzhou project is put into production, the company will enter a second period of rapid growth, we have given it a target price of 20 yuan for 12 months and raised the rating to “buy”
德力股份(002571):滁州项目即将点火 上调评级至“买入”
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