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朗廷酒店投资与朗廷酒店投资有限公司(1270.HK)

Langham Hospitality Investments and Langham Hospitality Investments Ltd. (1270.HK)

羣益證券(香港) ·  May 17, 2013 00:00  · Researches

Valuation

According to IPO HK$4.65 to HK$5.36, the 2013 forward price-to-earnings ratio is 14.5-16.8 times, and the price-to-price ratio is 0.81-0.94 times. Compared with the Grand Hotel (45.HK) and Shangri-La (69.HK) 39 times and 31 times, it is obvious. Even if the company indicates that 100% of the distributable income of this collection for the period from the listing date to December 31, 2013 and for each political year ended December 31, 2014 and 2015; and not less than 90% of the distributable income for subsequent political years. However, investors should note that even though the market accounts for a dividend return rate of 5.73% to 6.6% after partial distribution, the main purpose of this collection is to realize it. However, there are some points that have not been noticed by the market: (1) Hong Kong individual visit and hotel accommodation rates may have been reduced: according to the data published by the Hong Kong Tourism Board, as at March 2013, The number of arrivals continued to increase in 2013, reaching 12,700 between January 2013 and March 2001., The number of people increased by 13.5% year-on-year. In terms of hotel occupancy rates, the occupancy rates of all hotels in Hong Kong for the three months ended 31 March 2013 were comparable to those for the same period in 2012. The average room rate of all hotels in Hong Kong fell slightly by 0.7% in the same period in 2012. (2) the cost of some hotels will rise substantially. For example, it was reported earlier that Hong Kong hotel owners will collect the latest estimates of 90 hotels and found that the number of hotels has increased by more than 40%, and some of them have even increased by more than 50%. The average increase of 30% last year was high. The conference said that the government has always looked at the differences in the calculation of room rates and occupancy rates of hotels, but there is a big gap in the rate of increase this year, with sister hotels in the same cluster, one plus 50% and the other only 10%. Hotel hotels are all three-star, located near the center of the city, and the occupancy rate is similar. Mr. Luo, who runs a five-star hotel in Tsim Sha Tsui, said that his hotel gap has increased by 50% this year, and the new difference is NT $30,000 to NT $40,000 per quarter, which will be found unacceptable and will raise objections. Mr. Kui said that in the past, the occupancy rate of the Golden week hotel reached 90%, but this year it was only 70%, and the occupancy rate of some hotels was only 50%, which was even worse than usual. Hotel owners will be responsible for Li Yaocheng's approval Bureau to increase the difference in the market under the weak market, but we have not yet taken into account the minimum wage and general employment. (3) 2778.HK was listed as a real estate trust in 2006, but the stock market has not been satisfactory for many years, and it has also been attracted by a high-interest real estate trust in recent years. As a result, the investors of Capital Loss have been larger than Dividend Yield (4) for three consecutive years of assets, and the accounting system should have been cleared a long time ago, but the parent company may want to realize and find the maximum value in the form of listing. Therefore, even if there is a guaranteed distribution in this collection, we still recommend that investors make small notes on the stock market.

Negative factor

1) the distribution to the holder of a share agreement may not be uncertain; (2) the ability of the administrator-manager (on behalf of the Langham Hotel) to make a distribution to the holder of the share agreement depends on the performance and conditions of this collection (especially the hotel companies), it may not be able to make distribution to the holder of the share agreement at all, or the level of distribution may decrease. (3) there is no guarantee that the hotel will be able to maintain the level of variable rent or pay any variable rent; (4) the occupancy rate and income of the hotel and therefore its property value can be compared to other categories of real estate. (5) the valuation of the sale of such hotels may be different from that of the property valuation report (based on a number of false settings that may not be possible, in particular, including occupancy rates, average daily rents and market outlook data compiled by Savills), and may fall in the near future (6) Distribution and release is a mechanism to increase revenue, which can improve the effectiveness of the allocation of each joint stock unit and can only be used within a certain period of time. After the release of the distribution, the distribution and ╱ or registration of each share joint unit of the share partnership unit may be adversely affected; (7) the hotel management unit may be paid to the hotel manager by the share partnership unit during the period from the listing date to December 31, 2017, but the hotel manager may subsequently be liable to receive payment in whole or in part with a premium. If it elects to collect a premium, it may adversely affect the distribution of each share unit and the ╱ or tax of the joint stock unit; (8) the Company has significant obligations and has the effect of reducing the actual verification rate of this set, so it will increase the distribution of each share unit indirectly until the related unit is used up. If all the inactive accounts of this collection are used up, or if the related accounts cannot be activated for other reasons, the distribution of each joint stock unit and the ╱ or registration of the joint stock unit may be adversely affected. (9) the structures relating to the listing of Langham Hotel investment, companies and joint stock units are relatively new, so we cannot guarantee that the court will grant the relevant investor protection provisions in Hong Kong in the same manner as the companies listed on the Stock Exchange. (10) rely on hotel managers to manage the daily sales and market promotion of such hotels, any early termination or non-renewal of the Hotel Management Agreement or will affect our commitment to the removal of hotel managers, and the termination meeting of the Hotel Management Agreement leads to the agreement, centralized service and promotion agreement and total rental agreement automatic termination of the hotel concerned. (11) the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Expressway, which is expected to open in 2015, may adversely affect the demand for such hotel rooms, as Chinese tourists will easily travel to Hong Kong for single-day tours, and the number of overnight visitors may be reduced. And (12) the Hong Kong Government is currently reviewing Hong Kong's travel policy and may seek to impose further restrictions or restrictions on the number of visitors to Hong Kong. If other measures are implemented to reduce the number of visitors to Hong Kong, this may adversely affect our business, business, business conditions and prospects.

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