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成都路桥(002628):快速成长的城市基建运营商

安信證券 ·  May 21, 2013 00:00  · Researches

Transportation infrastructure is on the rise in Sichuan Province. During the “12th Five-Year Plan” period, transportation infrastructure planning investment in Sichuan Province is expected to reach 845.3 billion yuan, an increase of 172.5% over the “11th Five-Year Plan”. Chengdu Road and Bridge is one of the few contractors in Sichuan Province with a very wide range of qualifications. The market share has continued to increase in recent years, and will benefit from the rapid development of transportation infrastructure investment in Sichuan Province and the entire western region. The company signed a new contract in 2012, reaching 5.89 billion yuan, and is expected to continue to grow steadily in the next few years. Gradually transforming into an urban infrastructure operator. The company began to adopt a model that organically combines construction management and capital management in 2004, and has gradually become an investment builder integrating project investment, construction and management. Since 2012, the company has increased its efforts to expand BT projects. More than 80% of the newly signed orders are BT projects. The company is expected to grow into an urban infrastructure operator that mainly invests and operates like Wanxi in France. Management is standardized, and profitability continues to improve. Through fine management, the company strictly controls costs, and the gross margin of the construction business is higher than that of peers. Municipal highways and BT project companies are important directions of the company's development strategy. The gross margin of these projects is generally higher than that of ordinary road and bridge projects. There is still some room for improvement in the company's gross margin in the future. However, after BT projects enter a large-scale repurchase period, the investment income contribution will increase, and the net profit margin will rise significantly. The target price is 13 yuan, buy an investment rating of -B. In 2013-2015, we expect the company's main revenue growth rates to be 20.8%, 24.7% and 20.0%, respectively, and net profit growth rates of 43.6%, 37.2% and 23.9%, respectively. The company is undergoing a transformation from an ordinary construction enterprise to an urban infrastructure operator. The future growth is good and profitability is strong. The current valuation is low. It is given a buy-B investment rating. The target price for 6 months is 13 yuan, corresponding to 12 times dynamic PE in 2013. If EPS dilution after additional distribution is taken into account, the target price corresponds to 14.8 times dynamic PE. Risk warning: business area concentration risk, BT project repurchase risk.

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