Event: on May 15, 2013, the company received a notice from the State-owned assets Supervision and Administration Commission of Shanghai Zhabei District, the largest shareholder of the company, the details are as follows: on May 14, 2013, through the bulk trading system of the Shanghai Stock Exchange, the company reduced its holdings of 7077000 shares of Tibet City Investment, accounting for 1.2293% of the company's total share capital. After this reduction, SASAC still holds 339764655 shares of the company, all of which are tradable shares with unlimited sales conditions. Accounting for 59.0171% of the total share capital of the company, it is still the largest shareholder of the company. Main point of view: the reduction of major shareholders stems from the continuation of restructuring, and it is not that the reduction of major shareholders is not optimistic about the future development of the company, which makes the market question it. By combing the history of the company, we found that this reduction should be a continuation of the backdoor restructuring process at that time. In the report on the sale of major assets, issuance of shares, purchase of assets and related transactions of Tibet Yazhu Tibetan Medicine Co., Ltd., announced on May 14, 2009, Yazhi Tibetan Medicine provided 650 million yuan credit guarantee to the invested company Shenzhen Jinzhu Southern Trading Co., Ltd. as of December 31, 2008, the loan balance of Jinzhu Southern Bank is 519,451,272.11 yuan. Of which: overdue loan of 519,451,272.11 yuan ", in order to solve this problem," February 3, 2009 Yazheng Tibetan Medicine, Shenzhen Tongcheng Investment Co., Ltd., Beijing Xinlian Jinda Investment Co., Ltd., signed the Framework Agreement on the transfer of assets of Tibet Yazheng Tibetan Medicine Co., Ltd., and signed with the Zhabei District State-owned assets Supervision and Administration Commission of Shanghai. The framework agreement on the purchase of assets by non-public offering shares of Tibet Yazheng Tibetan Medicine Co., Ltd., according to the agreement All the creditors involved in the guarantee agreed to release the guarantee liability of Yazhi Tibetan medicine at the same time that the transaction plan of Yazhi Tibetan medicine was approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, and as the consideration of the above guarantee, Zhabei District SASAC agreed that within 60 days from the date of obtaining Yazhi Tibetan medicine shares, 3% of the total equity will be acquired through this issue., The proceeds of 10 million shares or the sale of such shares shall be paid to all creditors involved in the guarantee in a manner permitted by laws and regulations ".
On May 14, 2009, the parties finally reached an agreement that six creditor financial institutions, including the Shenzhen Office of China Huarong Asset Management Corporation, signed the Agreement on release of guarantee liability and debt repayment with Jinzhu South, Yazhu Tibetan Medicine, Zhabei District SASAC, and Xinlian Jinda. The State-owned assets Supervision and Administration Commission of Zhabei District agreed to pay 30 million shares of them to six debt financing institutions such as Huarong Shenzhen Office within 90 days after it acquired Yazhi Tibetan medicine shares in accordance with the law, as its consideration for relieving the guarantee liability of Yazhuang Tibetan medicine. Each unit shall receive the shares paid by the State-owned assets Supervision and Administration Commission of Zhabei District according to the proportion of the principal of its creditor's rights to the total principal of all creditor's rights banks, and the relevant taxes and fees shall be borne by all parties in accordance with the law.
We predict that the EPS of the company from 2013 to 2017 are 0.23,0.27,0.46,0.60,0.79, respectively, and the contribution of lithium carbonate business to EPS is 0.03,0.08,0.29,0.44,0.62 respectively. As the company focuses on the outbreak of lithium carbonate business, we take the 2015 lithium carbonate business contribution of more than 50% (64.64%) as the valuation benchmark, and give 15 times PE to the real estate business. The reasonable price of 50 times PE for lithium carbonate business is 17.15 yuan, which is basically consistent with our previous target price of 17.3 yuan.
From the calculation of the elasticity of lithium carbonate price to the company's performance, the company's performance is likely to increase explosively with the increase of lithium carbonate volume and price. if the lithium carbonate price rises to 60,000 in 2015, lithium carbonate business can contribute 0.53 yuan. Real estate business contributed 0.16 yuan, according to the above valuation, the company's reasonable share price is 28.9 We are only boldly assuming the ideal situation of the industry and the company in the future, which is the embodiment of the great flexibility of the company's performance.
From a cautious point of view, we still value the company according to the current lithium carbonate price, with a reasonable price of 17.3 yuan, maintaining a "highly recommended" rating.
Risk hint
The company's lithium carbonate industrialization technology route is lower than expected.
The construction process of lithium carbonate capacity of the company is lower than expected.
The price of lithium carbonate fell.
