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成都路桥(002628):成都路桥半年度业绩预告修正点评

國金證券 ·  Jul 16, 2013 00:00  · Researches

Incident Chengdu Luqiao's revised performance forecast: Net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies increased by 40% to 70% from the original 1,183586 million yuan in January-June to 143.75212 million yuan, and was adjusted to 166,6296 million yuan to 185.9921 million yuan, an increase of 90% to 120% over the same period last year. Comment on revenue and profit exceeding expectations and maintaining rapid growth: 1. The company's rapid growth validates the logic of our previous report, but the growth rate exceeds our and market expectations; 2. The company maintained a relatively rapid growth rate, on the one hand, due to the rapid growth rate of new orders signed last year (5.886 billion yuan, +115%), and on the other hand, due to the fact that important meetings such as the Wealth Forum were held in Chengdu this year. Some important projects were rushed to work in the first half of the year, and progress was relatively fast. The company's performance is expected to continue to grow rapidly: 1. A large number of on-hand orders guarantee the rapid growth of the company's future performance; 2. Some of the company's projects use the BT or EPC deferred payment model, so they will still bring a large amount of investment income to the company even after the project is completed, and previously completed projects will continue to contribute to the company's performance in the second half of the year. The market is vast, providing development space for the company: 1. Sichuan Province is constructing a central and western transportation hub, and projects such as the renovation of Chengdu's North City and the construction of Tianfu New Area are also progressing at an accelerated pace; 2. The current level of urbanization in Sichuan Province is low, and there is plenty of room for future improvement; 3. Recently, earthquakes and heavy water have caused damage to infrastructure in Sichuan Province to a certain extent, and road and bridge companies such as Chengdu Road and Bridge are urgently needed for future rehabilitation and reconstruction. Additional capital will help speed up the company's overall turnover: the company's public issuance plan has been approved by the Development and Review Committee of the Securities Regulatory Commission. If it is successfully issued in the future, supplementary capital will help speed up the company's overall turnover speed and promote the company's faster growth. The investment proposal raised the profit forecast. The company's 2013-2014 EPS is expected to be 1.17, 1.56, and 1.93 yuan respectively, corresponding to 9, 6, and 5 times the valuation level, respectively, and maintain the “increase in holdings” rating. Risks suggest that government repayments are slowing down, and the number of new orders signed is lower than expected

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