share_log

味千中国(538.HK):2季度运营数据强劲 然估值不便宜 维持中性

申銀萬國 ·  Jul 15, 2013 00:00  · Researches

Incident: Ajisen announced that domestic same-store sales increased by 5.8% in the second quarter, 3.3% in Hong Kong, and 4.5% overall sales in the restaurant business. Valuation and Target Price: We maintain our FY13-15E earnings per share forecast of HK$0.22/0.27/0.33 and target price of HK$7.0. We are optimistic about Ajisen's business model, but we believe that the current valuation of 31.6 times PE in 13 years and 25.7 times PE in '14 already reflects a recovery in fundamentals, and we maintain a neutral rating. Key assumption: We expect FY13-15E's mainland same-store sales growth of 5%/6%/7%. We expect a net increase of 20/50/60 for FY13-15E stores. Different from the public perception: domestic same-store sales increased by 5.8% in the second quarter (1.6% in the first quarter), which is basically in line with our expectations. We expect the increase in table turnover and customer flow to be the main driving force behind the recovery in same-store sales, while per capita consumption also rose from about RMB 40 to around RMB 41 per unit. Looking at the subregions, same-store sales growth in high-tier cities such as Beijing and Shanghai was better than the company's overall average, while same-store sales growth in other cities, such as Tianjin and Shenyang, remained negative. In the next 3 quarters, we believe same-store sales growth will continue to be driven by customer traffic and table turnover rates as the peak season arrives. Interim Report Forecast: We expect sales revenue to increase 3% to HK$1,557 million, and profit attributable to shareholders to increase 130.7% to HK$108.3 million. We expect the net profit margin to increase from 3.4% in 1H12 to 7.3% in 1H13E, mainly driven by sales recovery and operating leverage. We expect the FY13-15E net profit margin to continue to rise to 7.4%/8.3%/9.0%, with a 3-year compound growth rate of 31.8%, driven by improved sales efficiency and operating leverage. However, we believe that the current valuation of 31.6 times in 13 years and 25.7 times in '14 already reflects a recovery in fundamentals, so we maintain a neutral rating. Catalysts: Domestic same-store sales growth continues to rise; store expansion accelerates; profitable mergers and acquisitions. Risks: Raw material costs and stock prices have soared; new store losses are greater than expected and new stores are slower than expected; shopping center traffic has declined.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
    Write a comment