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东莞控股(000828)深度研究:具备估值优势的“类金融”

東方證券 ·  Jun 14, 2013 00:00  · Researches

Key investment points Dongguan Holdings is a listed company whose main business is expressways and holds shares in finance. The main highway business has resumed growth: Currently, the company owns 11.11% of the Guan-Shenzhen Expressway Phase 1 and 2, the Dongcheng section of the Gan-Shenzhen Expressway Phase III, the Longlin branch line of the Guan-Shenzhen Expressway, and Humen Bridge in Dongguan. We believe that profits in the toll road sector will continue to grow steadily for three reasons. First, negative effects such as toll road clean-up and free holiday policies have been experienced for a full year, and the effects have all been reflected in profits; second, the growth in car ownership in the Pearl River Delta region has remained around 13%, providing impetus for the increase in traffic at the Guan-Shenzhen Expressway, which is dominated by small cars; third, the Group still has significant toll road assets. The value of financial assets is most interesting: the company holds 20% of the shares in Dongguan Securities, with a market share of about 0.8% in the Dongguan securities brokerage business, and a 13-year performance estimate of around 260 million yuan, which is comparable with listed brokerage firms in the West, Northeast China, Guohai, etc. Based on the calculation of 20% of the PE valuations of small and medium-sized brokerage firms over 13 years, we expect a reasonable valuation to be around 12.4 billion yuan. The company holds 20% of the shares, and the equity value is 2.48 billion yuan. Dongguan Trust, the company owns 6% of the shares and completed the capital increase in May '13. The growth rate is outstanding. The overall valuation is around 5.4 billion yuan, and the company's share value is 320 million yuan. Furthermore, the company plans to acquire 51% of Guangdong Rongtong Financial Leasing's shares and increase the company's capital to about 1 billion yuan. The future is also promising. The valuation is very low and there is a possibility of repair: Currently, the company's stock price corresponds to about 11.7 times in 13 years, which is very cheap among participating financial companies, and the current hot spot in the market is also in non-bank finance, so there is a possibility of repair. Financial and valuation profit forecast: Considering the elimination of negative incremental factors such as cleaning up free holidays, the main toll road business is expected to grow steadily. Operating income is expected to reach 7.66, 7.96, and 842 million yuan in 13-15; realized profits of 4.68, 5.30, and 607 million yuan; EPS is expected to be 0.45, 0.51, and 0.58 yuan, respectively; according to the segment valuation method, toll road assets are 3.86 billion yuan and financial assets are 2.88 billion yuan. The overall reasonable valuation is 6.74 billion yuan, equivalent to 6.5 yuan per share. Compared with about 35% upside, we gave the company a “buy” rating for the first time, with a target price of 6.50 yuan. Risks suggest that negative toll road policies have intensified, the profitability of financial assets has declined, and the failure of Guangdong Rongtong Financial Leasing acquisitions.

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