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中能电气(300062):武昌电控将充分受益轨交“四电”招标

國泰君安 ·  Jun 5, 2013 00:00  · Researches

Guide to this report: Wuchang Electronic Control, a holding subsidiary, is a leading domestic box-transformer enterprise, benefiting from the recovery of the “four electricity” rail transit boom in '13. It is expected that box transformation revenue will increase 120% in '13 and exceed 80% of market expectations. Subsequent announcements will catalyze the formation of large orders. Key investment points: The holding subsidiary, Wuchang Electronic Control, benefited from the “Four Electric” tenders for rail transit. It is expected that the revenue of box transformation products will increase by about 120% in 2013, exceeding 80% of market expectations. Affected by this, the revenue of listed companies is expected to increase by 53.5% and net profit by 47% in 2013. The “four electricity” bidding for rail transit rebounded in 2013, and the “signal box transformer” product is expected to exceed 1 billion yuan, an increase of 50% over the previous year. Special passenger tenders stagnated in the first three quarters of '12, and railway investment resumed after the restart in November '12. The subcontract amount to February '13 reached 500 million yuan, and is expected to reach 1 billion yuan for the whole year, an increase of more than 50%. Leading companies have a high customer share, and the order growth rate will be ahead of the industry average. It is expected that Wuchang Electronic Control will double its growth. In the field of box-type substations for domestic rail transit, Wuchang Electronic Control is a leading domestic brand. Zhongneng Electric holds 51% of its shares. We believe that while the market is paying attention to the “four electricity” bidding boom for railways in '13, there is insufficient understanding of the extent to which Wuchang Electronic Control has benefited. Break through the subway market and take the lead in box-turned-high-end applications. Fourteen years from now, it will continue to share that the pace of subway construction is accelerating. On April 8, it was announced that Wuchang Electronic Control won the bid for a 0.4kV switch cabinet on Wuhan Metro Line 4, breaking the monopoly on foreign investment first. As of May 31, it was announced that a total of 97 million yuan will be added to major railway orders (including subways). We expect rail transit orders for the whole year to exceed 230 million yuan, an increase of 140% over the previous year. Investment rating and profit forecast: Considering the earnings of the subsidiary's rail exchange market, the estimated EPS for 13/14 is 0.40 yuan and 0.48 yuan, covering the first time and giving it a “prudent increase in holdings” rating and a target price of 10.5 yuan. The catalyst won the bid for the subsequent rail transit and was announced.

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