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任子行(300311):减持不改信息安全概念股的估值优势

華泰證券 ·  Jul 3, 2013 00:00  · Researches

On June 27, the company issued a shareholders' holdings reduction notice. The company received a notification letter from Tianjin Dongfang Fuhai Equity Investment Fund, a shareholder holding 5% or more of its shares. On June 25, 2013, Tianjin Dongfang Fuhai reduced its holdings of Ren Zi Bank's tradable shares by 1.6 million shares, which had already been lifted, through bulk trading and centralized bidding. On the first anniversary of the company's listing on June 25 this year, the reduction of Tianjin Dongfang Fuhai's holdings on that day inevitably put a lot of psychological pressure on the already highly valued stock price. We don't think this type of incident will have an impact on the company's stock price in the near future, but the probable event is that the concept of cybersecurity and information security is popular this year, and catalytic incidents have continued to occur, causing concept stocks such as Ren Zi Bank to continue to be at a high valuation level. Since its establishment, Ren Subsidiary Company has been focusing on the field of network information security. Its main business is the R&D, production and sales of network content and behavior audit and supervision products, and provides services related to security integration and security audit. China's online content and behavior audit and regulation market has huge potential for development. In 2010, China's online content and behavior audit market reached 654 million yuan, and the market size is expected to reach 2.18 billion yuan in 2015, with an average compound annual growth rate of 27.22%. This year, not only did the National People's Congress's legislation at the beginning of the year to strengthen information security management, personal identity, and strengthen the use of data make it possible for the entire information security industry to accelerate development in recent years; furthermore, a series of international and domestic cybersecurity incidents that occurred this year, including the Korean Internet paralysis at the beginning of the year, the cyber war between China and the US, and the “borderline” incident in the past two weeks, have given local security-related companies more room to imagine markets and profits than before. The company's sluggish growth in 12 years is mainly due to delays in orders for general network audit and security equipment. We expect that last year's orders, which were affected by the change of government and party leaders, will be gradually recovered in this year and the next two years, making the short-term growth rate of this area of orders higher than the average annual industry growth rate. Affected by the recent cybersecurity and “Prism Gate” incidents in China and the US, the long-term order growth rate is also expected to exceed 27%. Currently, supervisory authorities pay great attention to implementing network security management in non-operating Internet places, such as airports, hotels, high-end clubs, and bathing centers. Therefore, the company is also likely to make a breakthrough in this major field and maintain an annual growth rate of 20-30% over the next 3-4 years. EPS for 13-15 is predicted to be 0.64, 0.87, and 1.19 yuan, respectively, corresponding growth rates of 45%, 35%, and 37%. Since the recent increase in stock prices has been large due to security incidents, it is already 41 times that of '13. There is limited room for future growth, so we maintain the company's “increased holdings” rating. Risk warning: The market expansion of non-operating establishments is not as good as expected.

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