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吉鑫科技(601218):行业触底反弹 风电铸件龙头否极泰来

招商證券 ·  Jun 15, 2013 12:00  · Researches

The wind power industry has bottomed out and rebounded. The company's production capacity utilization is currently tight, and production for the whole year will increase by about 50% compared to last year. Prices of castings have stabilized, but raw materials have declined markedly compared to last year, production capacity utilization has increased, and gross margin will improve markedly. In the future, Vestas castings may switch from in-house production to procurement from the company. At the beginning of the year, management announced an increase in holdings of no more than 2%, and now they have increased their holdings by 1%, demonstrating confidence. Due to confirmed reasons, performance in the second half of the year will improve drastically. It is predicted that the EPS for 13-15 will be 0.06, 0.20, and 0.27 yuan. The “Prudent Recommendation - A” rating will be given for the first time, and it is recommended that attention be paid after the interim report. Investment in wind power in China resumed growth in 2013. It is expected that about 15-16 million kilowatts of installed capacity will be added this year, an increase of 20% over last year, and growth will resume after two consecutive years of decline. In 2013, the demand for wind power castings in China was 300,000 tons, and the global demand for wind power castings was 1 million tons. Wind power castings account for about 8% to 10% of the cost of a single wind turbine. According to estimates, each MW wind turbine requires about 20 tons of castings. According to estimates of 15-16 million kilowatts, the domestic demand for wind power castings is 30-320,000 tons, while the global demand for wind power castings is about 1 million tons. We expect the wind power casting industry to follow the steady growth in demand in the wind power industry in the future. The company is a global leader in wind power castings, and its scale advantage is obvious. According to our estimates, the company's wind power castings have a market share of 40% in China and a global market share of about 13%. If we calculate the same type of product, the actual share will be higher. The scale gives the company a large cost advantage. The cost of the company's products is 20% lower than that of similar domestic competitors and 50% lower than that of foreign competitors. The industry has bottomed out, and the performance of parts is more flexible. As the wind power industry bottoms out, the company's orders are currently full, and the intended annual order of 14,000 to 150,000 tons is about 50% higher than the previous year. Currently, production capacity is tight and prices have remained stable, but the main raw materials have declined markedly compared to the same period last year. Furthermore, as production increases and capacity utilization increases, the gross margin of the company's products will continue to rise. Maintain the “Prudent Recommendation-A” investment rating: We predict that the profit for the first half of this year will still be below 10 million, but the net profit for the second half of the year is expected to reach 50 million. There are clear signs of improvement in profit when profit bottoms out. Higher PE valuations can be accepted at low profit points. Currently, PB is around 1.5 times. Forecast EPS for 13/14 is 0.06, 0.20 yuan. For the first time, an investment rating of “Prudent Recommendation - A” was given. It is recommended to pay attention to catalysts such as Vestas orders after the interim report. Risk warning: Wind power investment falls short of expectations, raw material costs are rising, and RMB appreciation affects exports.

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