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金贵银业(002716)深度报告:量价齐飞高增长 对银价弹性大

東興證券 ·  Jul 3, 2017 00:00  · Researches

  Report summary: The “whole industry chain +” development model with silver as the core is gradually improving. The company actively extends the industrial chain to ensure the competitiveness of core industries. In recent years, the company has actively explored transformation and upgrading to develop a circular economy. At present, the company has basically formed a silver-rich lead concentrate - lead anode clay - silver (and comprehensive recycling of other valuable metals) - deep processing of silver products - “Internet +” industrial chain system, creating a “whole industry chain +” development model with silver as the core, and is committed to becoming the world's leading integrated service provider for the silver industry. Volume and price have risen sharply, and performance has grown rapidly. In 2016, the company achieved operating income of 7.852 billion yuan, an increase of 35.65% over the previous year, of which revenue from silver series products accounted for 65.83%, realized net profit of 142,7181 million yuan, an increase of 21.17% over the previous year; realized net profit after deducting non-recurring profit and loss of 144.7013 million yuan, an increase of 258.97% over the previous year. The increase in the company's profit is mainly due to the recovery in global non-ferrous metals prices and the successive commissioning of fund-raising projects. The company's silver production capacity and production have increased dramatically. With the help of the capital market, targeted increases in issuance can be anticipated in the future. The capital raised by the company will be invested in the “2000t/a high-purity silver clean extraction and expansion project”, the “30,000 t/a secondary antimony resource comprehensive utilization project”, and the “national enterprise technology center construction project”. These projects will greatly increase silver production capacity after delivery, and the comprehensive recycling capacity will be further enhanced. Profit forecasts and investment ratings. We forecast that the company's 2017-2019 revenue will be 10.37 billion, 14.74 billion, and 17.63 billion respectively, net profit of 391 million, 493 million, 539 million, and EPS of 0.70, 0.87, and 0.95, respectively, and corresponding PE of 26 times, 21 times, and 19 times, respectively. The initial rating gave the company a “Highly Recommended” rating. Risk warning. Raw material supply risk, risk of fundraising falling short of expectations, risk of falling prices of non-ferrous metals

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