Main viewpoints
The company locates itself as a city integrated operator.
Benefiting from the increased marketing of the company in the first half of the year, a substantial increase in land sales revenue, coupled with the base effect, the company forecasts that the net profit belonging to shareholders of listed companies in the first half of the year is 1-110 million yuan, an increase of 297-326 times compared with the same period last year. The controlling shareholder and actual controller of the company are Tieling Financial assets Management Co., Ltd and Tieling Municipal Finance Bureau. Tieling New Town is 8 kilometers away from the old city and 30 kilometers away from Shenyang. The Beijing-Harbin Line, Harbin-Dalian Expressway and G102 National Highway run through the territory. The Tieling West Station of Harbin-Dalian High-speed Railway is located in the new urban area of Tieling. After the opening of the high-speed railway in 2015, it will take only 2.5 hours from Beijing to Tieling! Tieling New Town has introduced well-known real estate developers at home and abroad, such as Malaysia's Tianli Group, Chinese Construction and so on. Tieling New City and Shenyang share the telephone area code; Tieling City has accelerated the construction of Shenyang Railway Industrial Corridor since 2010, which covers a total area of 3313 square kilometers in seven counties (cities) and two economic development zones with a population of 1.47 million people. it includes 10 industrial clusters in 18 key industrial parks in Tieling.
The sale of land in 2013 is expected to rise in both quantity and price.
As an important financial platform of local government, the company has been concerned by local and provincial governments. Tieling New Town has a planned area of 22 square kilometers, and the water area such as "Lianhua Lake" accounts for 30% of the new town area. It is known as the national garden city and has been the only Chinese city exhibited at the Shanghai World Expo. At present, the company can sell about 9000 mu of ripe land, the average price has risen from 600000 / mu in 2011 to about 1 million / mu, and the development cost is about 30-400000 / mu. According to the data of the municipal land and resources trading network, six commercial and residential sites in Xintun Village, Fanhe Town, listed on July 19, have a total of 154000 square meters, with a starting price of 348 million, equivalent to 1.5 million yuan per mu. We estimate that the company will sell about 2000 mu of land this year, and the income from the land transfer fee is estimated to be about 2 billion. With the steady progress of the urbanization of the new county seat, there are two counties about to be demolished, and the company has more room for land development and growth at the first level. The potential transferable area is nearly 20,000 mu.
Create "Hangzhou Xixi Wetland" on the edge of the capital
The "Lianhua Lake" Wetland Park in the new town covers an area of 20 square kilometers and is a natural wetland park with superior natural conditions, integrating tourism, vacation, summer vacation and winter ice sports. The company has more than 1000 mu of transferable land adjacent to the wetland, and plans to do low-density housing such as Townhouse and villas in the future. at present, the average price of high-rise housing around is 4000 yuan / square meter. With the opening of the high-speed railway in 2015, the "back Garden of the Capital" is expected to increase the space for land prices.
The pressure of debt service can be controlled and actively promote refinancing.
According to the quarterly report, the company's net debt ratio, asset-liability ratio and asset-liability ratio deducting accounts received in advance are 21%, 37% and 37%, respectively, and the monetary fund / (non-current liabilities due during the year + short borrowing) ratio is 4.1%. With the increase of land push in the third quarter and the adoption of a proposal to issue no more than 1 billion yuan of corporate bonds at the general meeting of shareholders, the pressure on short-term debt repayment is expected to improve. It is conservatively estimated that the gross profit margin of the company's first-tier development will remain at around 60%. The company's exclusive development and operation of the land in Tieling New District is consistent with the interests of the government. The heat of the land market and sustainable growth of performance will be the focus of the government and companies in the future.
Investment suggestion
Give a "neutral" rating within the next six months
The company's exclusive development and operation of land in Tieling New District is consistent with the interests of the government. the gross profit margin of primary development is higher, benefiting from rural urbanization and the construction of Shenyang Railway Industrial Corridor, land transfer is expected to reach a new high this year. and in the future may increase horizontal replication in the province and cross-regional development efforts. The company is expected to make a net profit of 777 million / 875 million / 9.59 in 2013-2015, equivalent to 1.41 yuan / 1.59 yuan / 1.74 yuan in EPS. Corresponding to the dynamic PE of about 6X/5X/5X, it is recommended to give the company a "neutral" rating.
Risk hint
Policy risk
Market risks that may be caused by a decline in economic growth
Financing channels may face financial risks due to policy restrictions.