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铁岭新城(000809):土地价值快速提升 新型城镇化受益代表

申銀萬國 ·  Aug 4, 2013 00:00  · Researches

Investment rating and valuation: Currently, land prices in Tieling New Town have risen markedly, and the company has entered a harvest period. At the same time, the company is a typical beneficiary target of a new type of urbanization, and the promotion of urbanization will bring room for further expansion of the company's development area. Regardless of the new project, RNAV has now increased by 24% to 11.8 yuan. The discount is relatively high, giving it an “increase in holdings” rating. 1) At present, new city construction has begun to take shape. The government, schools, hospitals, infrastructure and supporting facilities have been basically completed. Real estate project sales are going smoothly, occupancy rates have gradually increased, and the number of entrants to developers has increased, leading to a sharp rise in land prices. Land prices rose 40% to 1.05 million/mu in 2013, and the corresponding RNAV rose 24% from 9.5 yuan to 11.8 yuan! 2) The current 22 square kilometers of the Xincheng area have only 3.3 square kilometers left undeveloped, and capital expenditure requirements have declined markedly, while about 13.5 square kilometers (9,000 mu) of land has not yet been sold, with a corresponding sales amount of about 14.4 billion yuan, which will be sold in installments in 2013-2021. The company is entering a harvest period, and the increase in land prices will benefit the company even more. 3) The industrialization and urbanization process in Tieling City has advanced rapidly in recent years, yet there is still a lot of undeveloped land around Tieling New Town. The Xincheng area has a lot of room for expansion. If the company can undertake land development business in the expanded area, RNAV will increase significantly. 4) Due to the rapid rise in land prices, the company's RNAV has now risen to 11.8 yuan, and P/RNAV is 77%, which is at a low level. If there is new regional expansion, RNAV will increase further. However, considering the time required to monetize resources, the release of performance in 2014 may have slowed somewhat. We expect the company's revenue in 13-15 to be 14.4 billion, 12.1, and 1.27 billion yuan, respectively, and EPS of 1.35, 1.17, and 1.24 yuan respectively. The corresponding PE in 13-15 will be 6.7, 7.8, and 7.3 times, respectively, giving it an “increase in holdings” rating. Key construction points: 1) Land prices in Tieling New Town rose to 1.05 million/mu in 2013, and will continue to rise by 10-15% in the future; 2) Tieling's economy and population growth will remain at a high level in the future. The annual land concession scale of about 900 acres and land price increases of about 10% are sustainable, and will bring room for further expansion for the company. Different from public perception: Currently, land concession prices in Tieling New Town have exceeded expectations at the beginning of the year, leading to a significant increase in RNAV, and the urbanization process will also bring room for further expansion of the company. The catalysts for stock price performance: 1) the corporate bond issuance plan was approved; 2) the increase in land prices exceeded expectations; 3) the company obtained new development projects.

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