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康欣新材(600076)公司跟踪:高端板材制造商 核心优势来自“低成本”

廣發證券 ·  Jul 3, 2017 00:00  · Researches

  Moving with the trend, leading high-end board manufacturing with integrated forest and wood: the company started with seedlings and gradually expanded into downstream wood deep processing. Currently, it has formed an integrated “seedlings” business system with container bottom panels and environmentally friendly boards as the core business, and also has businesses such as afforestation and high-quality seedling cultivation. The COSB production line jointly developed with Germany is the core production capacity and can be adjusted flexibly. It can not only produce container floor panels and core panels, but also produce ordinary OSB civilian environmentally friendly boards by reducing performance parameters (low-performance products have a short processing time and use few materials, and the actual production capacity can be nearly doubled). The outstanding low cost advantage has created the “pearl” of the board industry: wood-based panels themselves are a low value-added industry. Production technology barriers in the industry are low, many patterns of small enterprises are scattered, gross margins are generally low, and as upstream timber resources become increasingly tight and prices rise, pressure on the cost side puts a lot of downward pressure on gross margin. As a high-end board manufacturer, the company's gross margin has stabilized at a high level of around 40%. The core behind outstanding profitability is low cost and high performance. The average unit cost of the company is about 1,000 yuan/square meter lower than that of other competitors. The company's low cost mainly comes from raw materials (wood and glue) and labor costs, of which the raw materials account for the largest share of costs. “Container floor plate+environmental protection board” two-wheel drive, continuous growth with the release of production capacity: the company's floor production capacity continues to expand, and customers continue to expand. As a leader, priority benefit from this round of economic recovery, and market share will further increase. Furthermore, with the rise of prefabricated buildings and the trend of consumption upgrading, there is great potential for environmentally friendly boards to enter the civilian sector. The layout of the wooden housing sector continues to advance, and growth can be expected. In terms of production capacity, as box board production capacity expands, the COSB production line will also be able to allocate more production capacity to produce environmentally friendly boards for civilian use. Investment advice: Maintain a “buy” rating. The company's container floor business is already a leader in the industry. Benefiting from the recovery of the industry boom this year, combined with production capacity investment, it is expected to increase dramatically. At the same time, environmentally friendly boards will maintain a rapid growth trend, and the layout of wooden houses will further open up room for growth. We expect EPS to be 0.47, 0.62, and 0.79 yuan respectively in 2017-2019. The current stock price corresponding to PE is 19 times, 15 times, and 11 times, respectively. The valuation is low, and the “buy” rating is maintained. Risk warning: demand for container floor panels has declined, raw material prices have risen, and new business development falls short of expectations;

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