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铁岭新城(000809):加大营销力度 今年土地出让有望创新高

上海證券 ·  Jul 18, 2013 00:00  · Researches

Company News Recently, the company released a performance forecast for the first half of 2013: Net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies made profit of 10 million yuan to 110 million yuan, an increase of 297 times to 326 times over the same period last year. The main point of view The company positioned the city as a comprehensive operator, and the sharp pre-increase in performance benefited from the company's increased marketing in the first half of 2013 and achieved land sales revenue. In addition, the base for the same period last year was relatively small. After the restructuring of the company was completed, Tieling Financial Asset Management Co., Ltd. and the Tieling Finance Bureau became the controlling shareholders and actual controllers of the company. The company is positioned as a comprehensive urban user, including early planning, demolition, first-level land preparation, investment promotion and later operation; Tieling New Town is 8 km from Tieling Old Town, 30 km from downtown Shenyang, and runs through the Beijing-Harbin Line, Hada Expressway, and National Highway G102; Tieling West Station of the Hada High Speed Rail is located in Tieling New Town, and it only takes two hours from Beijing to Tieling after the opening of the high-speed rail in 2015! Tieling Xincheng has brought in well-known domestic and foreign real estate developers, such as Malaysia's Tianli Group and China Construction. Tieling Xincheng shares a telephone area code with Shenyang City; Tieling City has accelerated the construction of the Shentie Industrial Corridor since 2010: with National Highway 102 as the axis, running from Shenyang in the south to Jilin Province in the north, and crossing the entire territory of Tieling City. The plan covers 7 counties (cities) and 37 townships (towns) in two economic development zones, with a total area of 3,313 square kilometers and a population of 1.47 million people, including the top 10 industrial clusters in Tieling's 18 key industrial parks. Rural urbanization plans unleash first-level land development potential. As an important financial platform for local governments, listed companies have always attracted the attention of local and provincial governments. Tieling New Town has a planned area of 22 square kilometers, and its water area accounts for 30% of the city area. It is known as the Northern Water City and National Garden City, and was once the only Chinese city exhibited at the Shanghai World Expo. It is conservatively estimated that 45% of the planned construction area can form a concessionable area. Furthermore, as new counties and towns steadily advance urbanization (the new city construction cycle is about three years), there is still plenty of room for future growth in the company's first-level land development area. We expect the potential concessionable area to exceed 100,000 mu. Currently, the average price of land concessions in Tieling has risen from 600,000/mu in 2011 to 1 million/mu. In 2013, the company will promote first-level land development and expand new first-level development projects south of the Van River. We estimate that in 2013, the company plans to prepare to list about 2,000 acres of land, and the estimated revenue from land concessions is 2 billion dollars. In the future, companies may also adopt horizontal replication within the province and cross-region offsite replication. Performance promises According to the performance promises of the restructuring Fang Tieling Caijing, the net profit achieved in 2012 and 2013 was not less than 678 million yuan (actual 681 million yuan) and 739 million yuan. Equivalent EPS is about 1.23 yuan and 1.34 yuan. If the performance does not meet the standards, the majority shareholders will buy it back at a price of 10.13 yuan. Shares placed by fixed increase institutions may face partial pressure to reduce holdings in 2013, and we still need to pay attention to further progress. IMPORTANT NOTE: Be sure to read the Analyst Commitment, Company Eligibility Statement, and Disclaimers at the end of the page. The investment proposal will be given to the most important first-level land developers in the province with a “neutral” rating within the next six months, and will receive strong support from the local government. The gross margin of company-level development is high, benefiting from rural urbanization and the construction of the Shentie Industrial Corridor, driving a relatively rapid rise in land prices. Land concessions are expected to reach a new high this year, and horizontal replication and cross-regional development efforts within the province may be increased in the future. The company's net profit for 2013-14 is estimated to be 770 million/840 million yuan, equivalent to EPS of about 1.40 yuan/1.53 yuan. Corresponding to dynamic PE of about 7X/6X, it is recommended to give the company a “neutral” rating. Risk indicates policy risk; market risk that may be caused by a decline in economic growth; financing channels may face financial risks due to policy restrictions

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