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京能置业(600791)深度报告:背靠京能集团 打造国资地产旗舰

民生證券 ·  Jul 26, 2013 00:00  · Researches

Summary of the report: The majority shareholders have strong backgrounds, giving the company multi-faceted support. The majority shareholder of the company is Jingneng Group, and the actual controller is the Beijing Municipal State-owned Assets Administration Commission. The majority shareholders own the four business segments of electricity, real estate, finance, and technology, and position electricity and real estate as their dual main businesses. It can be seen how much they attach importance to the real estate business. Currently, the majority shareholders' business is spread across most provinces in the country, and the installed capacity of electricity is in the first tier of China's power industry, and its strength is strong. Over the years, the majority shareholders have provided the company with a variety of financial and resource support. Land reserves are of high quality and low price, and the absolute valuation discount significantly takes into account unconsolidated business. As of the end of 2012, the company's equity has not been settled for a construction area of about 1,797 million square meters. Among listed companies of the same size as the company's land, Israel has the lowest market capitalization, at only 2.2 billion yuan. Yicheng Co., Ltd.'s project reserves are far lower than the company's, and its market value is close to 4 billion yuan. Shenzhen Zhenye's land reserves are slightly higher than the company's 2.37 million square meters, while its market value is 2.5 times that of the company. The company's NAV is valued at 8.15 yuan, and the current stock price is discounted by 38%. Compared to other comparable companies in the real estate sector, the discount rate is high. Annual sales are expected to exceed 3.6 billion yuan, providing financial support to increase land reserves. This year's main sales project, the Beijing Sihe Upper Court has a saleable area of 60,400 square meters, an average price of 55,000 yuan/square meter. Based on this calculation, the project can achieve sales of 3.3 billion yuan this year. Furthermore, it is estimated that Yinchuan Tianxia River and Tianjin Haiyue City will contribute at least 300 million yuan in sales, so the company's sales for the whole year is expected to exceed 3.6 billion yuan, a significant increase from the previous year. This provides strong financial support for the company to increase its land reserves in the future. The company's reasonable valuation is 6.52 yuan. The “Highly Recommended” rating was given. The company's historical data showed that the company had almost no intention of deliberately smoothing performance. Therefore, it is expected that after the Beijing Sihe Upper House has completed the handover at the end of the year, the company will settle the settlement immediately. If the handover goes smoothly, there will be a significant increase in performance this year. Assuming that the Sihe Senate settled 30% this year, the EPS for this year and next two years would be 0.51 yuan and 1.20 yuan respectively; assuming a 75% settlement, the current two-year EPS would be 1.15 yuan and 0.57 yuan, respectively. NAV is valued at $8.15. If a 20% discount is given, then a reasonable valuation would be $6.52. Give it a “Highly Recommended” rating. Risks indicate that sales conditions are lower than expected; settlement cycles are extended; regulatory policies are upgraded again, etc.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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