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黑牡丹(600510)中报点评:土地收储减少影响业绩 扣非后净利仍增长

海通證券 ·  Aug 18, 2013 00:00  · Researches

Event: The company published its 2013 semi-annual report. During the reporting period, the company achieved operating income of 1,835 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.48%; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 104 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 48.0%; realized basic earnings per share of 0.13 yuan; and net profit after deduction of 103 million yuan, an increase of 8.07% over the previous year. Investment advice: The company integrates textiles and clothing, comprehensive urban development, and industrial investment. On behalf of the government, the company is deeply involved in the development of all businesses in New Taipei District. The 17.5 square kilometer high-speed rail area and 10,000 hectares of land project, which is in the first phase of construction, is progressing smoothly. According to the contract, the company will receive 10% project revenue and a 5:5 share of revenue. Changzhou's housing price-income ratio is low, and the 439-square-kilometer Xinbei District has developed only 1/5, so there is room for expansion in the future. The company promotes the rejuvenation of textiles and clothing through a brand strategy (self-created ERQ jeans brand), and the Bank of Jiangsu, which it invests in, is expected to go public. Although the company's performance in the first half of the year was under pressure due to the decline in land collection and storage, the company expects full year net profit to be no lower than last year. We expect the company's 2013 and 2014 EPS to be 0.43 and 0.52 yuan respectively, and the corresponding RNAV is 12.34 yuan. As of August 14, the company closed at 5.11 yuan, corresponding to PE of 11.88 times and 9.74 times in 2013 and 2014, respectively. We use a 50% discount of the company's RNAV of 6.17 yuan as the company's target price for the next 6 months to maintain the “increase in holdings” rating. Risk warning: The industry faces two major risks: interest rate hikes and policy regulation.

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