Key investment points The focus of the business is shifting to logistics platforms. The company's main business is logistics, while also carrying out financial services such as small loans. The company also operates BT and meteorological instruments business. In the first half of this year, logistics business accounted for 55.9% of the revenue structure, BT and meteorological equipment accounted for 33.4% and 6.8% respectively, and logistics accounted for 52.4% in the gross profit structure. Meteorological equipment contributed 20.2% of gross profit due to its high gross margin, while BT accounted for 23.5%. The company's logistics business mainly includes a new logistics platform centered on China Logistics Trading Network 56135.com, a logistics information platform operated by the Shanghai Land Exchange Center, and international freight forwarding business. The logistics platform is becoming the company's core business. Under the platform economy, logistics platforms have a lot of room for development. Road transportation costs in 2012 reached about 3 trillion yuan, 2.3 times the current online retail sales volume in China, and the market size is huge. Highway capacity is expected to move towards platform-based development. First, offline platforms, such as the Transanhua Highway Port and Safety Logistics, etc., and the second is an online platform, which provides information services, financial services, and offline support services for both road logistics needs through online information platforms. However, online information platforms combined with more sticky offline services will be more competitive and have more market space. Currently, the company's logistics information platform has an annual matching transaction volume of about 1 billion yuan, which still accounts for a very low share of the highway market. The company's platform-based value-added and financial services are expected to develop rapidly. The China Logistics Trading Network currently has more than 100,000 registered members and an average of more than 1.1 million daily visits. This year, the 56135 cold chain distribution and direct distribution platform was officially launched, providing nationwide cold chain distribution services for e-commerce platforms such as Tmall Mall and No. 1 Store. Secured transactions were introduced in 2010 to provide value-added financing, guarantees, insurance, communications, settlement and technical services for the logistics industry. In 2012, the revenue of the Land Transport Center increased by nearly 150% to more than 300 million yuan, reversing the loss of nearly 10 million yuan in 2011 and beginning to be marginally profitable. In order to enhance the service platform for customers and use customer big data to provide financial services, the company set up a small loan company. The net profit for the first half of the year has exceeded 4 million yuan. The weather is expected to grow steadily, and mining will increase profits. The company's meteorological business is expected to grow steadily. The net profit of Shanghai Changwang Meteorological Technology Co., Ltd. is expected to be about 13 million yuan in 2013, contributing nearly 10 million yuan in profit to the company, and is expected to maintain a compound growth of 10-15% over the next three years. The predictability of the BT business is poor. The contract amount for the Gongji Road project is 540 million yuan, and it is expected that a gross profit of about 30 million yuan will be confirmed in the next 2 years. The future development of BT business requires further expansion of new projects to maintain stable business and profits. The company plans to acquire 60% of the shares in Anhui Mining, and is expected to contribute about 10 million yuan in annual profits to the company over the next three years. Risk factors: institutional and institutional risk; logistics market concentration risk; strategic risk. Earnings forecasts, valuations and investment ratings. The company's 2013/14/15 diluted EPS is expected to be 0.15/0.21/0.28 yuan, and the current stock price corresponding to PE is 69/51/38 times. We estimate that 56135.com, operated by the company's Land Communications Center and operations, contributed about 19 million yuan in net profit in 2014. Referring to the average PE of Business Bank and Shanghai Steel Union, the corresponding market value was 1.5 billion yuan, plus the reasonable valuation of the original business was about 3.56 billion yuan, corresponding to the target price of 11.6 yuan, and the current price of 929 yuan. Considering that the road logistics market is vast and the Land Communications Center is in a relatively rapid development stage, the company was given an “increase in ownership” rating for the first time.
长江投资(600119)投资价值分析报告:物流平台价值有待重估
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