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京能置业(600791)中报点评:四合上院确保今年业绩增长

Comments on Beijing Neng Real Estate (600791): Sihe House of Lords ensures performance growth this year.

民生證券 ·  Sep 3, 2013 00:00  · Researches

I. Overview of events

According to the company's interim report, the company's operating income in the first half of the year was 292 million yuan, down 23.25% from the same period last year, and the net profit belonging to shareholders of listed companies was 43.86 million yuan, down 17.76% from the same period last year. Basic earnings per share is 0.10 yuan, weighted average return on net assets is 3.51%.

II. Analysis and judgment

The number of settlement items in the first half of the year decreased compared with the same period last year, which led to a decline in performance and did not affect the judgment of annual performance growth.

The company's operating income and net profit declined to varying degrees in the first half of the year, mainly due to the decrease of settable items in the first half of the year. The Sihe upper house project in Beijing began to sell in the first half of the year, and the pre-sale certificate shows that the available resources are about 3.3 billion yuan. At present, there is no housing available for sale. The project is scheduled to be handed over by the end of this year. If the delivery is smooth, most of the income can be settled this year. From the cash flow statement of the China Daily, we can see that the cash received from the sale of goods and services is only 309 million yuan, which shows that the project has not received any sales funds by the end of June, but it does not affect our judgment on the delivery of the project this year, and the annual performance will increase substantially.

The monetary fund is 130 million yuan, close to the all-time low, and the sales of the Sihe House of Lords will change the status quo.

The company's medium report shows that the monetary capital is only 130 million yuan, close to the lowest level in history (the lowest is the annual report of 100 million yuan in 2004). The Sihe House of Lords has opened for sale in the first half of the year, and by the end of June, the sale of the project is nearing completion, but the sales refund has not yet been fully confirmed (309 million yuan in cash received in the first half of the year for the sale of goods and services, while the available resources of the Sihe House are about 3.3 billion yuan). This is mainly due to the fact that after the purchase restriction begins, the housing contract filing needs to wait until after the qualification verification is successful. At present, the website of the Beijing Municipal Housing and Construction Commission shows that the number of successful online filing sets of the project accounts for about 1 / 3 of the total number of sets, and it is expected that the sales refund will be received one after another after the online filing.

Tianjin Dongjiang Port project is planned for the fourth quarter, and the concept of free trade zone may boost its value.

The company acquired the project Tianjin Sea and City on Tianjin Dongjiang Island in 2010. The project is located on an island in Dongjiang and within the area where Tianjin Free Trade Zone is planned. The planned construction area is 790000 square meters, accounting for 44% of the uncompleted surface of the company at the end of 2012, accounting for a relatively large proportion. If the Tianjin Free Trade Zone is approved, the project will have more room for appreciation because of its superior geographical location.

In addition, the major shareholder Jingneng Group signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement with the Zhuhai Hengqin Island Management Committee in 2010, including commercial land development, and the company has broad room for relay major shareholders to expand.

Third, profit forecast and investment suggestions

The company's performance in the past two years is mainly affected by the settlement of the Sihe upper house project. Assuming smooth delivery and 75% settlement of Sihe Lords this year, the EPS in the next three years will be 1.15,0.57 and 0.69 yuan respectively, corresponding to a multiple of PE4 in 2013. NAV is valued at 8.15 yuan and is currently trading at a 34% discount. Give a "highly recommended" rating.

Fourth, risk tips:

The settlement of Sihe upper house this year is lower than expected; project sales in other areas are lower than expected; real estate regulation and control is higher than expected; and so on.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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