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友利控股(000584)中报点评:房地产业务助业绩大幅增长 氨纶业绩改善显著

天相投顧 ·  Aug 29, 2013 00:00  · Researches

In the first half of 2013, the company achieved operating income of 1,756 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 234.71%; operating profit of 363 million yuan to reverse losses (loss of 51.815,700 yuan in the same period last year); net profit attributable to parent company owners of 267 million yuan to reverse losses (loss of 334.779 million yuan in the same period last year); and basic earnings per share of 0.65 yuan. The real estate development business contributed major profits, and spandex performance improved markedly. In the first half of 2013, the company achieved a significant year-on-year increase in operating income of 234.71%. The main reason was: the D7 plot project of the “Shudu Central” urban complex project developed by the company continued to sell existing houses and continued delivery to buyers. According to relevant regulations, the pre-sale revenue corresponding to the delivered housing was included in current profit and loss. By the end of the reporting period, the delivery of the houses sold in the company's D7 plot project had basically been completed, contributing more than 1 billion yuan in revenue during the reporting period. At the same time, the total pre-sale revenue achieved by the D3 plot project reached 103 million yuan. The real estate business had a gross margin of 50.43%. Since the beginning of 2013, the new production capacity of spandex has been drastically reduced, the supply and demand structure has improved markedly, and the price of spandex has gradually risen. The market price of spandex 40D has now risen from 44,000 yuan/ton to 50,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 6,000 yuan/ton, and gross margin has increased 8.07 percentage points to 5.08%, significantly improving performance. The increase in the company's performance in the second half of 2013 came from D3 and D4 plot projects. The sales and delivery of the “Shudu Center” D7 plot project developed by Chengdu Shudu Yintai Real Estate Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company, has basically been completed, contributing more than 2 billion yuan in revenue. All construction of the “Shudu Center” D3 plot project (1 office building, 1 residential building) has been capped, and has entered construction stages such as interior installation and construction, exterior glass curtain wall installation preparation, etc. The pre-sale revenue achieved in the first half of the year was 103 million yuan; the D4 plot project (supporting projects for the “Shudu Center” D7 and D3 projects) has completed all civil construction projects and ground landscape greening (supporting municipal parks) projects. Both projects will be delivered and contributed to profits in 2013.。 The spandex industry is about to enter the peak consumption season, and expectations of price increases are strong. Since entering 2013, there has been very little new domestic spandex production capacity. The industry has entered a stage of capacity digestion, and the supply and demand pattern has gradually improved. The cumulative increase in production capacity over the next two years is only about 30,000 tons. In the low consumption season in May-July, the industry still maintains low inventories and tight supply, and ex-factory prices continue to rise. As the peak consumption season approaches in September, this situation will intensify, and there is still a possibility that prices will continue to rise. Profit forecast and investment rating: We previously predicted the company's earnings per share for 2013-2014 to be 1.41 yuan and 0.61 yuan respectively. Based on the closing price on August 28, 2013, the corresponding dynamic price-earnings ratios were 8 times and 18 times, respectively. We maintain the company's “overweight” investment rating. Risk warning: (1) risk of price fluctuations of raw materials and products; (2) risk of continued income from real estate development business; (3) risk of continued downturn in the textile and garment market.

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