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京能置业(600791):半储备在东疆 借力集团跨区扩张

民生證券 ·  Sep 2, 2013 00:00  · Researches

Summary of the report: The Tianjin Dongjiang Port Project may have increased in value due to the Tianjin Free Trade Zone Plan. It is reported that the Tianjin Free Trade Zone plan has been reported to the State Council for approval, yet the Tianjin Free Trade Zone is located in the Dongjiang Bonded Port Area on an island in Eastern Xinjiang. The company obtained a project at the southern end of Dongjiang Port in Tianjin through an equity acquisition in 2010, with a planned construction area of 790,000 square meters, accounting for 44% of the company's total land reserves at the end of 2012. The project is named Jingneng Sea and City, and the plan is a comprehensive project integrating high-rise buildings, townhouses, bungalows, commerce, and education. It is planned to launch sales for the first time in the fourth quarter of this year. If the Tianjin Free Trade Zone is successfully approved, the regional value of the region will increase dramatically, the costs of the company's projects have been locked in, and future profit margins are expected to increase. The big-stock Tokyo Energy Group signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement with the Hengqin New Area Management Committee. The company is expected to benefit. At the end of 2010, the company's big-stock Tokyo Energy Group signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement with the Hengqin New Area Management Committee of Zhuhai City, Guangdong Province. The cooperation includes: Jingneng Group will give full play to its advantages in commercial real estate, energy, etc., participate in the construction of commercial real estate in the Hengqin New Area, develop and build urban commercial complexes, and participate in the construction of energy infrastructure facilities. The Hengqin Management Committee will provide support and assistance for the establishment of commercial banks and carbon reduction exchanges in the Hengqin New Area. Facilitate implementation and provide policy support. In 2009, the State Council approved the implementation of the “Hengqin Master Development Plan” to include the Hengqin New Area within the scope of the Zhuhai Special Economic Zone. The Hengqin New Area is an important window connecting Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao, and is expected to become a candidate for future trade zones. With the strength of the majority shareholders, the company has broad scope for expansion. There are no properties available for sale in the Beijing Sihe Upper Court project. If 75% is settled this year, the company's EPS is about 1.15 yuan. The main project currently on sale this year, the Beijing Sihe Upper House has a saleable area of 60,400 square meters, with an average price of 55,000 yuan/square meter. Based on this calculation, the project can achieve sales of 3.3 billion yuan this year. According to the website of the Beijing Municipal Housing and Construction Commission, there are no properties available for sale in the project, and the number of online registered units accounts for about 1/3 of the total number of units; the rest are in the process of qualification verification and have already been booked. The project will contribute to the company's main net profit this year. Assuming 75% of the settlement this year, the company's EPS is 1.15 yuan; if the settlement is 50%, the EPS is 0.80 yuan. The company's reasonable valuation is 6.52 yuan. The “highly recommended” rating is given assuming that the Beijing Sihe Senate project settles 75% this year, then the company's EPS for the next three years will be 1.15 yuan, 0.57 yuan, and 0.69 yuan respectively, corresponding to 5 times the 2013 PE. NAV is valued at $8.15. If a 20% discount is given, then a reasonable valuation would be $6.52. The safety margin is high, and the “highly recommended” rating is maintained. Risks indicate that sales conditions are lower than expected; settlement cycles are extended; regulatory policies are upgraded again, etc.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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