Incident: The company issued a revised announcement on the results forecast for the first three quarters. The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies for the first three quarters ranged from 45 million yuan to 55 million yuan, with a year-on-year change of -62.26% to -53.87%. Previously, the company's interim report expected net profit for the first three quarters to be 65 million yuan to 75 million yuan, a year-on-year change of -45.48% to -37.1%. Comment: Traditional digital TV set-top boxes lay the foundation for broadcasting channels and customers. The company is a leading TV set-top box enterprise in China, with a market share of around 20%. Digital set-top box products account for more than 80% of its main business, covering 100 million users of 18 provincial radio and television operators. The degree of digitalization of television in China has already exceeded 60%. Although there is still room for improvement in the penetration rate, there is a risk that the growth rate will decline. Entering the TV Internet blue ocean market with leading radio and television operator channels and customer base is the company's strategic choice. The reasons for the changes in the company's short-term performance include: first, the company's expected profit declined from previous expectations due to the increase in new business promotion expenses in the third quarter of 2013; second, the company's expected revenue decreased due to delays in the delivery of some orders in the third quarter of 2013, resulting in a decrease in expected profit compared to previous expectations. The television internet strategy has led to increased costs. The company officially released the “1+1 TV Internet Account Access Project” in September this year, focusing on building a “terminal+platform+channel” full-service digital television interconnection product system, and plans to promote 100 million set-top box users over the next two years. Users only need to pay a deposit of 99 yuan and a monthly rent of 8 yuan to get a free set-top box. Large-scale product promotion meetings and media relations led to an increase in expenses during this period. Performance Forecast Revenue Forecast: We expect the company's revenue from 2013 to 2015 to be $2,289 million, $2,430 million, and $2,942 million, respectively, up 8.7%, 6.2%, and 21.0% year-on-year, respectively. Satellite TV access equipment: We expect sales revenue of 845 million, 1,014 million, and 1,166 billion dollars from 2013 to 2015, with a year-on-year increase of 20%, 20% and 15%, respectively, and gross margin is expected to stabilize at around 21%; cable TV access equipment: We expect sales revenue from 2013 to 2015 to be 1,152 million, 847 million, and 593 million. Due to increased donation of equipment, revenue is declining year by year, and gross margin remains around 24%; OTT service revenue: We expect The number of OTT users from 2014 to 2015 was 5 million and 12.5 million, respectively, with monthly ARPU values of 5 yuan/household and 6 yuan/household, OTT sales revenue of 300 million yuan and 900 million yuan, and gross margin increasing to 70% year by year; other devices expect sales revenue of 234 million, 304 million and 395 million yuan, with gross margin remaining around 33%; profit forecast: We expect the company's net profit from 2013 to 2015 to be 61 million yuan, respectively. 182 million and 506 million, up -68.47%, 199.19%, and 177.56%, respectively; corresponding EPS were 0.09 yuan, 0.27 yuan, and 0.74 yuan, respectively. Investment advice: In the long run, platform construction and user expansion are more critical. The company is currently in a period of strategic transformation, and TV Internet platform construction and user expansion are the main focus. The company's platform content has collaborated with CIBN (China International Radio and Television Network too). CIBN provides more than 100 high-definition channels, tens of thousands of movies, and real-time updated information, online education, e-commerce, and app stores. In addition, the company is contacting game manufacturers such as Yunhu Games, 3DJOY, Magic, and Ninth City to further improve platform content. Game manufacturers provide game content, and the company is responsible for channel promotion, and the two sides share a joint share. The company plans to launch the next revolutionary product and improve the platform hardware within 3-4 months. Currently, the company will select one or two provinces to carry out pilot work. Once mature, it will be promoted throughout the country, and the number of users will become a tracking point for major companies. Entering the field of television and the Internet, there is huge room for market capitalization. The free promotion model of the company's “1+1 TV Internet account” project may put pressure on the company's performance in the short term, but as the division model with local operators becomes clear, the company will control TV Internet user resources. If the number of customers of the company expands to 20 million in the next 2 years, the market value could reach 40 billion yuan based on the calculation of each household worth 2,000 yuan (up to now, the value of Baishitong users is 2,800 yuan). It is estimated that the company's earnings per share after 13 to 15 years of dilution will be 0.09 yuan, 0.27 yuan, and 0.74 yuan, corresponding to current stock price trends of 149 times, 49 times, and 18 times, respectively. Reiterating that the company's future focus is on platform construction and user development, investors are advised to focus on it.
同洲电子(002052):淡化短期业绩 关注平台和用户落地进程
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