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华鼎锦纶(601113):巴西临时反倾销税为零 利好公司南美市场的开拓

民族證券 ·  Oct 10, 2013 00:00  · Researches

Investment highlights: Incident: On September 12, 2013, the Foreign Trade Secretariat of the Ministry of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade of Brazil issued Order No. 72, deciding to impose a four-month temporary anti-dumping duty on nylon filament products imported from China, Taiwan, and Thailand from September 16, 2013. The final ruling on this case will be handed down early next year. The tax base for anti-dumping duties is: 222.07 US dollars/tonne - 2409.11 US dollars/ton. According to the preliminary ruling announced this time, the company is not only the only nylon manufacturer in the domestic nylon industry that has received zero anti-dumping duties, but it is also the only company that has received zero anti-dumping duties among the nearly 40 nylon manufacturers in China, Thailand, and Taiwan included in the current anti-dumping investigation by Pakistan. The company's product positioning at the high-end is the main reason why anti-dumping duties are zero this time. The company's products are targeted at high-end users, the product differentiation rate has reached 70%, and the price is higher than other products in the market. We believe this is the reason the company has been spared in this interim anti-dumping. Nylon companies in Taiwan and mainland China are expected to be affected to some extent. According to our statistics, the top 15 nylon 6 fiber companies in the world account for 42% of the world's production capacity, mainly companies in Taiwan, mainland China, Japan, South Korea, and the United States. We expect this anti-dumping to have some impact on enterprises in Taiwan and mainland China. I am optimistic about the company's future development in overseas markets, especially the South American market. Judging from this year's interim report, the share of the company's sales revenue in markets outside of China is only 8.7%. As domestic and **** competitors are subject to anti-dumping duties, the company's product prices will become more competitive in the Brazilian market, and we expect this share to a certain extent in the future. Maintain the company's “increase in holdings” investment rating. We expect the company's 2013-2015 EPS to be 0.26 yuan, 0.34 yuan, and 0.40 yuan, maintaining the “buy” investment rating. Risk warning. The risk of a sharp drop in caprolactam prices, the risk of changes in Brazil's final anti-dumping ruling, and the risk of weakening textile and garment exports. The risk that the company's project production time falls short of expectations

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