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华鼎锦纶(601113) :前三季度业绩同比增长50%-70% 未来看好南美市场的开拓

民族證券 ·  Oct 18, 2013 00:00  · Researches

Investment highlights: Event: The company released the three-quarter performance forecast, and the performance for the third quarter of this year is expected to increase by 50-70% year-on-year. In the same period last year, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 378.7774 million yuan. Due to the acquisition of Hang Ding last year, the scope of financial statement consolidation changed. After retroactive adjustments, the company achieved net profit of 34.6901 million yuan. Therefore, it is estimated that the company's net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies for the first three quarters of this year will be 520.352 to 589.732 million yuan. The increase in product gross margin and the reduction in financial expenses were the main reasons for the sharp year-on-year increase in performance. Judging from the price spread situation in the nylon industry, the price spread for nylon products without nylon slices in the third quarter actually narrowed somewhat, but the gross margin of the company's products bucked the trend. We think this is due to the fact that the company's products are positioned at the high-end and the good market development situation in the third quarter. Furthermore, judging from this year's interim report, the company's financial expenses fell sharply year on year. The direct reason is that exchange earnings outweigh exchange losses. I am optimistic about the company's future development in overseas markets, especially the South American market. The company has always paid attention to the expansion of the South American market. As can be seen from the board of directors report in the company's 2012 annual report, the South American market should be a new growth point for the company's export market. At the end of September this year, the company obtained zero tax rate in Brazil's preliminary anti-dumping ruling on nylon wire from the three countries and regions. It is the only company that has escaped taxation for mainland enterprises. Other listed companies, such as Chunhui Shares, Meida Shares, and some nylon companies listed overseas, were all subject to anti-dumping duties to varying degrees. Since Brazil's local nylon yarn is positioned at the low end and the company's products are positioned at the high end, it is expected that Brazilian nylon companies will not have an impact on the company's nylon products, while in the high-end sector, since competitors are taxed, we expect the company's products to be more competitive in the Brazilian market in the future, and we expect this share to increase to a certain extent in the future. Maintain the company's “increase in holdings” investment rating. We expect the company's 2013-2015 EPS to be 0.14 yuan, 0.25 yuan, and 0.37 yuan, maintaining an investment rating of “increased holdings”. Risk warning. The risk of a sharp drop in caprolactam prices, the risk of changes in Brazil's final anti-dumping ruling, and the risk of weakening textile and garment exports. The risk that the company's project production time is lower than expected.

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