After Russian fertilizer producer Uralkali and Belarusian fertilizer company Belaruskali disbanded this year, PhosChem, the world's largest phosphate fertilizer exporter, also officially disintegrated. The market is concerned that fertilizer prices have declined one step further, and the industry is still sluggish. On the other hand, the mainland continues to increase preferential agricultural policies, which have a supportive effect on the industry. CNOOC (3983) recorded low unit value increases in revenue and net profit in the first half of the year, to 5.22 billion yuan (RMB, same below) and 960 million yuan. Since the second half of the year is a low season for chemical fertilizers, the group will increase the export volume of urea and phosphate fertilizer, and at the same time use the upcoming off-season reserves of chemical fertilizers to complete domestic fertilizer sales and trial sales of high-end compound fertilizers, which is expected to support sales revenue. In the second half of the year, the group will continue to promote the construction of a coal-to-urea project in Hegang, Heilongjiang, to ensure that production is put into operation in the fourth quarter of next year, hoping to further boost sales. Also, due to the depreciation of the Indian currency, demand for phosphate fertilizer may not improve in the second half of the year. Natural gas is the main raw material for the production of urea and methanol. The group signed a natural gas purchase agreement with CNOOC (883) to obtain natural gas at lower prices, while also being able to guarantee supply, giving it a clear competitive advantage. The natural gas supply was sufficient in the first half of this year, and urea equipment implemented high-load long-term operation, driving the production volume to a new high of 101 million tons. However, due to falling sales prices, the revenue from this business increased by only 3.3%. In terms of phosphate fertilizer, the second phase of the Dayukou phosphate fertilizer plant was put into commercial production in August last year, driving a sharp increase in phosphate fertilizer production by nearly 90% to 40.9 million tons, and sales volume increased by 54.7% to 33.4 million tons, resulting in the division's actual revenue of 1.03 billion yuan, an increase of 56% over the previous year. On the trend, the stock price rebounded from the July low of $3.58 (Hong Kong dollar, same below), and the 10-day line rose through the 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day lines, showing a “big candle” on the 5th of last week. Currently, it is clearly above the top of the Boresco channel. The upward trend is expected to be moderate. STC%K is slightly above the %D line, and the MACD bullish gap widens. It can be considered 4.65 yuan absorption, rising to 5.2 yuan, and is sustainable without falling below 4.4 yuan.