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友利控股(000584)三季报点评:房地产业务助业绩大幅增长 氨纶业绩改善显著

天相投顧 ·  Oct 15, 2013 00:00  · Researches

In the third quarter of 2013, the company achieved operating income of 2,367 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 192.58%; operating profit of 476 million yuan, which reversed losses (loss of 71.2821 million yuan in the same period last year); net profit attributable to owners of the parent company was 349 million yuan to reverse losses (loss of 46.6011 million yuan in the same period last year); and basic earnings per share of 0.85 yuan/share. The real estate development business contributes the main profit. During the reporting period, the company's operating income and net profit attributable to owners of the parent company increased sharply year-on-year, mainly due to the increase in confirmed revenue and spandex revenue of the subsidiary Yintai Real Estate in the current period. The “Shudu Center” urban complex project D7 plot project developed by the company continues to sell existing houses and continue to hand over houses to buyers. According to relevant regulations, pre-sale revenue corresponding to the delivered houses is included in current profit and loss. The handover work of the sold houses in the company's D7 plot project has basically been completed, contributing more than 2 billion yuan in revenue; all the buildings (1 office building, 1 residential building) of the “Shudu Center” D3 plot project have all been capped and sales have begun. The D4 plot project (supporting projects for the D7 and D3 projects) has completed all civil engineering and construction projects Ground landscape greening (supporting municipal park) project , Both projects will be delivered and contributed to profits in 2013. The gross margin of the real estate business reached 50.43%. The spandex boom has picked up, and profitability has increased dramatically over the same period last year. Since the beginning of 2013, the new production capacity of spandex has been drastically reduced, and the supply and demand structure has improved markedly. The price of spandex has gradually increased. The market price of spandex 40D has risen from 44,000 yuan/ton to the current 53,000 yuan/ton, an increase of nearly 10,000 yuan/ton. The profitability of the industry has increased markedly. The company has 32,000 tons of spandex production capacity, and the product price increase has improved the company's performance significantly. Profit forecast and investment rating: We previously predicted that the company's 2013-2014 earnings per share would be 1.11 yuan and 0.58 yuan, respectively. Based on the closing price on October 14, 2013, the corresponding dynamic price-earnings ratios were 9 times and 18 times, respectively. We maintain an “accrual” investment rating. Risk warning: (1) the risk of price fluctuations of raw materials and spandex products; (2) the risk of continuing revenue from real estate development business.

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