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青龙管业(002457)三季报点评:预计明年公司业绩增长回归平稳

東方證券 ·  Oct 30, 2013 00:00  · Researches

The quarterly report on the incident was published. From January to September, revenue was 720 million yuan, an increase of 46.4% over the previous year, and net profit of 77.158 million yuan, an increase of 3.4% over the previous year, which is basically in line with market expectations. Net profit for the full year of 2013 is forecast to return to 8349-113.85 million yuan, an increase of 10%-50%. Investment points PCCP revenue confirmation for the third quarter accelerated in 3Q 2013, and the company achieved revenue of 340 million yuan, an increase of 78%. We estimate that PCCP management revenue was about 200 million yuan. Compared with PCCP revenue of more than 1 billion yuan in the second quarter, the carry-over rate increased markedly, but it was still lower than our expectations of 300 million yuan. Since the company's performance has fallen short of expectations many times, for the sake of prudence, we have included only the portion of the company's current delivery and unconfirmed revenue of about 250 million yuan in our PCCP revenue forecast for the fourth quarter. Based on this, we lowered the company's annual PCCP revenue forecast from 750 million yuan to 600 million yuan, and the total revenue forecast for 13 years to 1.18 billion yuan. It is expected that next year's performance growth will return to stability. Judging from the current situation of new orders signed by the company and tenders for water transportation projects above Hebei Water Plant for South-to-North Water Transfer, we expect the company's performance growth to stabilize next year: 1) We estimate that the company signed new orders for concrete pipes in the third quarter of about 100 million yuan. Currently, the size of the single bid is about 20 million to 30 million yuan. PCCP pipe orders have returned to normal levels; 2) there are few PCCP tenders for water transportation projects above Hebei Water Plant. The second design unit in Shijiazhuang is about 19 kilometers long. Among them, the PCCP and DIP tube tenders are 1.9 km and 17 km respectively. The PCCP tube bid amount is significantly lower than our previous expectations. The four cities of Shijiazhuang, Baoding, Xingtai, and Handan have already tendered 1.36 billion yuan of DIP pipes. We expect that the tenders for PCCP pipes for water plants in the seven cities will be scattered in the future. In order to reflect that revenue for the third quarter was lower than our previous expectations and that next year's performance growth may slow ahead of schedule, we lowered our 2013/14/15 EPS forecast to 0.37/0.47/0.53 yuan respectively (the original forecasts were 0.41, 0.53, and 0.63 yuan, respectively). The 2013 PE corresponding to the current stock price is 22.6 times. We used 21 times the average PE in the building materials industry as the company's target valuation multiplier. Based on the 2014 EPS forecast, we derived a target price of 9.8 yuan within 12 months to maintain the company's “buy” rating. Risk Alerts Revenue Confirmation for the Henan and Hebei Sections of the South-to-North Water Transfer Supporting Project Is Lower Than Expected

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