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凤凰股份(600716)3季报点评:静待四季度公司业绩释放

浙商證券 ·  Oct 31, 2013 00:00  · Researches

Key investment points: Project settlement cycles did not match, resulting in a slight loss in net profit reported. On the evening of October 30, the company disclosed the 2013 three-quarter report: realized operating income of about 234 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 55.79%; realized net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of about 35.9928 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 148.5%; and realized basic earnings per share of -0.05 yuan. The sharp decline in the company's performance during the reporting period stemmed from: (1) the project settlement cycle did not match, and settlement revenue was low; (2) the fee rate increased markedly during the period, up 17.64 percentage points from the previous year to 32.54%. We believe that the decline in the company's interim report performance is temporary, and that as the company's main settlement projects are delivered in the fourth quarter, the company's performance will pick up. Sales payback in January-September was about 1.15 billion yuan. According to preliminary estimates, the company's commercial housing sales payback in January-September was about 1.15 billion yuan (the actual commercial housing sales contract amount will be higher), up 11.3% from the same period in 2012; of these, the first quarter, the second quarter, and the third quarter were 150 million yuan, 590 million yuan, and 560 million yuan respectively. We expect the company's annual commercial housing sales to be over 2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of more than 35%. There is some pressure on short-term capital, but the asset structure has improved, and the company's monetary balance at the end of the period was about 519 million yuan, down 33.38% from the end of the second quarter; it was only 46.76% of the same period (short-term loans plus non-current liability due within one year). Seen from a static perspective, there is some pressure on short-term capital, and further sales are needed to ease it. At the same time, the company's balance ratio after deducting advance accounts at the end of the period was about 56.8%, down 4.6 percentage points from 61.4% at the end of the second quarter, indicating an improvement in the long-term asset structure. Maintaining the “increased holdings” rating, we expect the company's 2013-2015 EPS to be 0.45 yuan, 0.57 yuan, and 0.70 yuan respectively, and the PE corresponding to the current stock price is 12.5 times, 10.0 times, and 8.1 times, respectively. We maintain the company's “increase in holdings” rating based on the following considerations: (1) the company's lawsuit has passed, and the 13-year performance risk shock has disappeared; (2) sales are expected to be above 2 billion dollars, and sales are flexible; (3) we are still optimistic about the company's cultural real estate model, and only await further verification and expansion of related projects to achieve potential growth.

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