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晋西车轴(600495):国产化提速 动车装上中国“风火轮”

長江證券 ·  Oct 29, 2013 00:00  · Researches

Key points of the report China's EMU technology is undergoing a rapid transformation from introduction and absorption to Chinese manufacturing. The first decade of development of Chinese EMU technology was the stage of introduction of absorption and component assembly. Based on the experience of EMU development in Japan and other countries, after gradually mastering production, assembly and supporting technology, industrial transformation and upgrading will become the direction of development. China has formulated plans to fully localize trains in 16 years and launch high-speed trains with independent intellectual property rights. Once again, the development of EMU technology in the next ten years will be based on the integration of the industrial chain and the formation of uniform standards as the main development direction. The demand for EMUs is 1-1.5 billion dollars per year for dual engines to drive axles. In 2013-2016, the total demand for EMUs will reach the 1400-1600 standard. In the next 3-5 years, the annual market size of EMU axles will reach 1-1.5 billion yuan. After EMUs entered grade 4-5 repair, the demand for EMU axle replacement and maintenance was high. After the rapid railway network was formed, the demand for EMU axle replacement far exceeded the new demand. In 2013-2015, the total demand for EMU axles was 0.045-0.05 million; in 2016-2020, the total demand for EMU axles was 0.05-0.06 million; after 2020, rapid railway networks were formed, and there was less demand for EMU axles with new EMU equipment, and the demand for EMU axles was mainly replacement demand. Domestic axle suppliers are upgrading, and Jinxi is expected to become a core supplier. Chinese EMU axles are mainly imported from Japan's Sumitomo Steel Group, Germany's BVV, and Italy's LUCCHINI. Domestic EMU axle suppliers are represented by Zhiqi. They only have the ability to finish, assemble, and repair EMU axle shafts, and their original EMU axles and wheels are all imported. As the localization process of trains accelerates, companies represented by Ma Steel - Jinxi and Taizhong are actively promoting high-speed wheel localization projects. Among them, the Ma Steel-Jinxi project has a production capacity of 5 late-stage high-speed wheels, and the axles are in the testing stage; the Taizhong project has a production capacity of 0.1 million EMU wheels and 8,000 axles. As Jinxi began delivering high-end products such as high-speed axles at the end of the 12th Five-Year Plan period, the company's overall gross margin and revenue scale are expected to enter a period of rapid growth.

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