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百盛集团(3368.HK):盈利持续低于预期 下调每股盈利和目标价 维持减持评级

申銀萬國 ·  Nov 22, 2013 00:00  · Researches

The results were once again disappointing. Overall sales increased 0.7% to RMB 3.888 billion. Overall operating income increased 0.1% to RMB 1.15 billion. Net profit attributable to shareholders fell 77.5% to RMB 3.35 million in the third quarter of '13. Same-store sales fell 4.2% in the 3rd quarter, a further deterioration from -0.7% in the first half of '13. The company opened 5 new stores and acquired 4 management stores in the first nine months of 2013. Currently, it operates and manages 57 stores nationwide. Product gross margin has narrowed. The deduction rate fell 60 basis points year on year to 18.2%, and the direct sales profit margin narrowed by 80 basis points year on year to 15.5%, leading to a decrease in product gross margin of 70 basis points to 17.9% year on year. The decline in product gross margin was mainly due to the low gross margin of the nine stores newly opened in 2012, and the decline in sales contribution of stores with high product margin, especially flagship stores in Shanghai and Beijing. Negative operating leverage and losses in new stores led to weak profits. Overall operating expenses in the third quarter increased by 16.3% to RMB 783 million, of which employee and rent expenses increased sharply by 30.7%/18.8% respectively to RMB 154.7 million and RMB 265 million, respectively. As a result, operating profit fell 66.2% to RMB 635 million. Currently, there are still 20 stores in a state of loss, and a total loss of more than 200 million yuan has been generated. The operating margin for the third quarter fell 3.3 percentage points to 1.7%. Maintain a reduced holdings rating, and further downgrade earnings per share and target price. We lowered our earnings per share in '13 by 29.7% to RMB 0.17, lowered our earnings per share in '14 by 30.1% to RMB 0.18, and lowered our earnings per share in '15 by 27.2% to RMB 0.19, reflecting that same-store sales growth rate fell short of expectations and operating expenses exceeded expectations. We also lowered our target price from HK$2.5 to HK$2. We maintain our holdings reduction rating. We believe that in the intense competition from both online and offline channels, Parkson will further lose its market share in the department store industry. Catalysts: lower-than-expected same-store sales growth; higher-than-expected losses in new stores; and unmanageable increases in staff and rent costs. Risk: better-than-expected management capacity; government incentives for consumption.

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